Optimistic about two rate cuts within the year, but wary of the market correction risk in August. Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $3.7 trillion, with BTC accounting for 61.2%, which is $2.26 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $266.9 billion, with a 7-day increase of 0.65%, of which USDT accounts for 61.67%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, a small number rose while most fell, including: TON with a 7-day increase of 13.64%, ZORA with a 7-day increase of 40.39%, ZBCN with a 7-day increase of 26.02%, USELESS with a 7-day decrease of 31.66%, and FARTCOIN with a 7-day decrease of 31.79%.
This week, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $642.9 million; the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $155 million.
Market Forecast (August 4 - August 8):
This week, stablecoins saw minor issuance, the U.S. Ethereum spot ETF continued to see net inflows, but the Bitcoin spot ETF experienced significant net outflows, and altcoins showed some corrections. The RSI index is 36, showing weakness. The Fear and Greed Index is at 54 (lower than last week).
On August 1, U.S. non-farm employment data disappointed, with July job numbers far below expectations, raising the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September to 77.7%. Optimistic about two rate cuts within the year, but cautious of the market correction risk in August.
BTC: If it falls below $115,000, it may test the support at $112,000; breaking above $120,000 will aim for $125,000.
ETH: Support at $3,500, upward target at $4,000.
Understand Now
Review of Major Events of the Week
1. On July 29, Bloomberg reported that Coinbase is in deep negotiations to acquire the Indian crypto trading platform CoinDCX;
2. On July 31, according to strategicethreserve data, Bitmine, Sharplink Gaming, and The Ether Machine hold more ETH than the Ethereum Foundation;
3. On July 31, Stable completed a $28 million seed round financing, led by Bitfinex and Hack VC.
4. On August 1, Coinbase plans to add tokenized stock, prediction markets, and early token sales, creating a 'one-stop trading platform';
5. On August 1, according to Reuters, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched the Project Crypto initiative, aimed at modernizing securities regulations and enabling on-chain functionality in U.S. financial markets;
6. Ethereum ETF has seen a net inflow for 20 consecutive days, totaling $5.4 billion, a record;
7. The SEC approved the ETF's physical redemption mechanism, allowing BTC/ETH to be directly exchanged for ETF shares;
8. Trump's tariff policy took effect on August 1, and the market is focusing on capital flows in emerging markets.
Macroeconomics
1. On July 31, the Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting of no changes, in line with market expectations;
2. On July 31, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations;
3. On August 1, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics stated that the non-farm payrolls for May were revised from 144,000 to 19,000; June's non-farm payrolls were revised from 147,000 to 140,000.
4. On August 1, the U.S. adjusted non-farm payroll for July was 73,000, with an expectation of 110,000.
ETF
According to statistics, from July 28 to August 1, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $642.9 million; as of August 1, GBTC (Grayscale) had a total outflow of $23.665 billion, currently holding $20.503 billion, and IBIT (BlackRock) currently holds $83.781 billion. The total market capitalization of the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF is $14.7994 billion.
U.S. Ethereum Spot ETF Net Inflow
Envisioning the Future
Event Preview
1. The Vietnam Blockchain and Artificial Intelligence Summit CONVICTION 2025 will be held in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from August 9 to 10, 2025;
2. Coinfest Asia 2025 will be held in Bali, Indonesia from August 21 to 22.
3. WebX Asia 2025 will be held in Tokyo, Japan from August 25 to 26, 2025;
4. Bitcoin Asia 2025 will be held at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre from August 28 to 29.
Important Events
1. On August 7 at 19:00, the UK will announce decisions on the central bank's interest rate, meeting minutes, and monetary policy report;
2. On August 7 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending August 2 (in ten thousands);
3. On August 8 at 20:30, Canada will announce July employment figures (in ten thousands);
4. Brazilian legislators are preparing to debate a new cryptocurrency tax proposal put forward by President Lula, which will impose a fixed fee of 17.5% on all transactions, eliminating the income tax exemption for small trading businesses compared to the old tax regime, and targeting decentralized financial activities through a temporary measure effective in June. The deadline for this decision is October 8; if the measure is not approved by this date, it will lapse.
Token Unlock
1. IOTA (IOTA) will unlock 8.63 million tokens on August 5, valued at about $1.56 million, accounting for 0.22% of the circulating supply;
2. EIGEN (EigenLayer) will unlock 1.29 million tokens on August 6, valued at about $1.43 million, accounting for 0.41% of the circulating supply;
3. IMX (Immutable) will unlock 24.52 million tokens on August 8, valued at about $12.31 million, accounting for 1.3% of the circulating supply;
4. MOVE (Movement) will unlock 50 million tokens on August 9, valued at about $6.51 million, accounting for 1.92% of the circulating supply.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing carries risks. We strongly recommend that investors invest only after fully understanding these risks and within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
