📉 **One, Key Support Level Analysis from a Technical Perspective**
1. **Short-term core support zone ($745-765)**
- **$755-765**: Recently a rebound area with multiple retests, integrating the Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) from the previous upward movement, the MA60 moving average, and historical oscillation platforms, forming a technical resonance support. After the price retested $765 on July 31, it quickly rebounded, accompanied by a volume decrease stabilization signal, indicating strong support from bulls in this area.
- **$745-755**: If $755 is lost, this range serves as a secondary defense area, coinciding with the retest level after a weekly breakout, and there is institutional cost support.
- **Strong support ($710-760)**: Long-term upper boundary of the oscillation zone; if an extreme price action breaks below $745, this will become the last line of defense for bulls.
2. **Resistance and trend reversal confirmation levels**
- A breakout above **$770-774** (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level) can be viewed as a short-term stop-loss signal.
- Only by stabilizing above **$790-800** (previous high resistance zone) can the trend reversal be confirmed, opening up the pathway to challenge $860-1000.
[ ] Two. Long and short factors
1. Bearish dominant factors
- **MACD Bearish Crossover**: Daily MACD is below the waterline with a death cross, and a bearish crossover appears on the 4-hour chart, with the price dropping 3% to $743.82, showing weak short-term momentum.
- **Whale short hedging**: On-chain data shows that despite BNB chain activity reaching a three-year high, whales are aggressively shorting in the derivatives market, possibly hedging spot positions, increasing short-term selling pressure.
- **Market panic sentiment**: On August 3, cryptocurrencies fell across the board, with BNB dropping over 3% in one day, and $369 million in liquidations across the network within 24 hours (with long positions accounting for 84%), reflecting the liquidation of leveraged long positions.
2. Potential support logic for bulls
Long-term moving averages are protective: the price remains above the 50-day MA ($699) and the 200-day MA ($646), indicating that the long-term trend is not broken.
RSI oversold divergence: Although the 4-hour RSI is nearing the overbought zone (70), the daily RSI has fallen from a high to a neutral area, and if it drops further below 40, it may trigger a rebound.
Strong on-chain fundamentals: BNB Chain's daily transaction volume reaches 3 million, with over 1.2 million active addresses, and the ecosystem expansion provides underlying support for the coin price.
🌐 **Three, Market Sentiment and News Catalysts**
- **Bearish events**:
- US July non-farm data fell short of expectations, heightening recession fears and causing a broad decline in the crypto market.
- Sudden news such as SEC regulatory reviews has historically caused significant breakdowns (e.g., in March 2025, a whale's sell-off combined with regulatory news caused BNB to fall below $610).
- **Long-term bullish expectations**:
- Standard Chartered predicts that BNB may exceed $1200 in 2025, with some analysts bullish up to $2292, based on the pattern of bull markets following Bitcoin halvings and the expansion of the BNB ecosystem.
- Expectations for BNB ETF, quarterly deflationary burning mechanism, and other potential catalysts are still in play.
⚔️ **Four, Long and Short Trend Predictions**
| **Short-term rebound** | Hold support at 755 + breakout above 770 | $790-800 | 40% |
| **Continued oscillation** | Consolidation in the 745-765 range | Sideways momentum | 35% |
| **Breakdown** | Falls below 745 + panic selling | $710-720 | 25% |
**Core reversal signal**: must meet **MACD crossover + daily close above $780 + shorts exceeding 60% in liquidation volume**, otherwise the reversal is hard to sustain.
⚠️ **Five, Operational Suggestions and Risk Warnings**
- **Short-term traders**:
→ Lightly try longs near $755, stop-loss below 745, target 770-780;
→ If it breaks down with volume below 745, go short, targeting 720.
- **Long-term investors**:
→ Gradually position in the 710-760 range, with a stop-loss at 690, aiming for a target above 1000 dollars.
- **Risk warning**:
→ Pay attention to changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations in September; if liquidity easing is less than expected, it may trigger a second bottom;
→ Closely monitor the movements of whales on-chain and the funding rates for derivatives to avoid 'false breakdown' traps.
💎 **Conclusion**
**BNB faces a tug-of-war around $756, likely oscillating between $745-770 in the short term**, with a low probability of a direct reversal. If macro risks ease (such as the Federal Reserve signaling a dovish stance) or positive developments in the ecosystem occur (BNB ETF progress), a new round of upward momentum may start at the end of August. Investors are advised to adopt a range strategy to cope with volatility and wait for weekly stabilization signals.
