Based on the current Bitcoin (BTC) price fluctuation in the $113,000–$118,000 range, combined with multidimensional analysis of technical indicators, on-chain data, institutional trends, and macro events, the following key arguments exist regarding whether it can stabilize and rally near $113,000:
📊 **One, Technical Indicators: Long and Short Critical Point Contest**
1. **Key Support and Resistance**
- **The $112,000–$114,000 range** is the current core support zone, gathering the CME futures gap fill level ($114,000), Fibonacci 50% retracement level ($113,500), and EMA50 moving average ($117,000). If it effectively falls below $112,000, it may trigger stop-loss selling, probing down to the psychological level of $110,000 or even $100,000.
- **Resistance Above** is concentrated at $118,200–$120,000; breaking through this may challenge the previous high of $123,000 and open the $125,000–$130,000 channel.
2. **Volatility and Pattern Signals**
- **Bollinger Squeeze**: The Bollinger Bands have recently narrowed to extremes, with volatility dropping to a low of 45%, indicating a significant directional breakout is imminent. If coupled with increased volume, it may rapidly impact $123,000–$125,000; conversely, if it breaks down, it increases the risk of a pullback.
- **Bullish Flag Pattern**: Some technical models show the current consolidation pattern resembles a 'bullish flag', with a target of $144,000 after breaking the $118,600 neckline.
3. **Divergence in Momentum Indicators**
- **RSI Oversold (32)**: Short-term nearing the oversold region, indicating a rebound demand, but if it continues below 30, it may strengthen the downtrend.
- **Derivatives Market**: $5.59 billion in BTC options expire on August 1, with the maximum pain point at $117,000 above the current price, potentially triggering 'Gamma Squeeze' and increasing volatility.
$BTC 🔗 **Two, On-Chain Data and Market Structure: Profit-Taking Pressure vs Long-term Holder Confidence**
1. **Profit-Taking Pressure**
- **97% of Circulating BTC is in Profit**, unrealized profits amount to $1.4 trillion, with strong short-term selling motives. Large holders have recently sold 80,000 BTC (about $9.6 billion) through OTC trades, but market liquidity quickly absorbed this, showing depth in buying.
- **Increased Miner Selling**: Late July saw miner reserves shift from accumulation to reduction, which may suppress prices if continued.
2. **Long-term Holder (LTH) Support**
- **LTH controls 53% of the supply**, with holding costs mostly below $50,000, showing significant inclination to hold.
- **MVRV Pricing Band**: The +0.5σ support level at $109,858 becomes a battleground for bulls and bears; holding this level sets an upward target of $130,000 (+1.0σ); losing it indicates a deeper pullback to $88,960 (mean band).
BTC📰 **Three, News and Fundamentals: Tug-of-War Between Institutions and Macros**
Battle**
1. **Institutional Demand Hedging Selling Pressure**
- **MicroStrategy** increased its holdings by 21,021 BTC in July (average price $117,256), with total holdings reaching 628,791 BTC; the institutional 'HODL' logic remains unchanged.
- **ETF Fund Flow Volatility**: July saw a net inflow of $23.7 billion, but a single-day net outflow of $115 million on August 1, if continued, may weaken support.
2. **Macro Events Catalyzing Market Shifts**
- **Federal Reserve Policy**: Expectations for rate cuts in September are rising; if August inflation data (CPI/PCE) is mild, it may boost risk assets.
- **Geopolitical Tariff Risks**: New U.S. tariff policies have triggered market risk aversion, with increased correlation to U.S. stocks.
- **Regulatory Trends**: The Trump administration is advancing pro-crypto policies (such as ETF approvals), but the SEC's stance still needs to be observed.
#美国加征关税 ⚔️ **Four, Key Battlegrounds and Scenario Simulations for Long and Short Positions**
The table below summarizes the core arguments and potential scenarios from both bulls and bears:
| **Bullish Forces** | • $112K-$114K technical support<br>• RSI oversold rebound demand<br>• Institutions continuing to accumulate (MicroStrategy)<br>• Federal Reserve rate cut expectations | • $118K-$120K technical resistance<br>• ETF funds short-term outflow<br>• Bollinger squeeze breakout failure | If it holds above $113K and breaks $118K:<br>→ Short-term target $123K → Mid-term $130K-$140K |
| **Bearish Forces** | • 97% circulating BTC profit-taking pressure<br>• Miners increasing supply through selling<br>• Global tariff policy impact<br>• Historical seasonal weakness in August | • Psychological barrier at $110K<br>• MVRV breaking below $109.8K signals deep pullback<br>• Risk transmitted by U.S. stock volatility | If it loses $112K:<br>→ Down to $110K → Deep pullback to $100K-$88K range |
💎 **Five, Comprehensive Conclusion: Stabilizing Conditions and Operational Strategies**
1. **Essential Conditions for Stabilizing at $113,000**:
- **Macroeconomic Negative Sentiment Easing**: Clarity on U.S. tariff policy and inflation data below expectations;
- **On-Chain Support Verification**: Daily on-chain transfer volumes remain high, and net outflows from exchanges indicate an accumulation tendency;
- **Technical Defense Success**: The $112,000–$114,000 range needs to close above $114,000 for three consecutive days.
2. **Short-term Operational Strategies**:
- **Bulls**: If there are signs of volume stabilization in the $113,000–$112,000 range, positions can be gradually established, with stop loss set below $110,000, targeting $118,000→$123,000.
- **Short Sellers**: If it falls below $112,000 and is accompanied by continuous net outflows from ETFs, it can short to $110,000, with a stop loss at $118,600.
> The key for Bitcoin to stabilize and rally around $113,000 lies in whether institutional buying can cover short-term selling pressure and whether macro risks are controllable. If it breaks above $120,000 in mid to late August, it will open up a new bull market space; conversely, if it loses $110,000, caution is needed for a deep pullback to the $88,000–$100,000 range.