The current data is indeed not good, there is still a possibility of inflation rising, and the unemployment rate has not exceeded the Federal Reserve's expectations. Tariffs have not been formally implemented yet. Overall, based on this data, the difficulty of lowering interest rates is indeed not high, but the internal pressure within the Federal Reserve is also significant. Even another voter, Williams, openly expressed support for a rate cut in September yesterday.

So my personal view is that if this drop is due to concerns about a recession, it might be a bit early. The market sentiment can gradually stabilize. If we are really talking about a recession, I think it won't happen until 2026; the probability of entering a recession in 2025 is not high, and let's talk about unemployment rates after it exceeds 4.5%. Currently, the unemployment rate of 4.2% is quite low in U.S. history.

If the concerns are not about a recession but about the Federal Reserve cutting rates, the sentiment now is much better than when the data was released on Friday. Kugler and Williams have already secured four votes for September, and there is still more than a month left, so it's not impossible to persuade a few more people.

Therefore, from any perspective, it is not a very pessimistic situation right now. The uncertainty regarding tariffs with Mexico continues to be postponed, China continues to postpone, and the major trading entity, the EU, has also been resolved. Japan and South Korea have also been settled. Now it's just about making a show of strength with India, and I currently do not see any systemic risks.

So I will continue to hold my long positions. I do not expect new highs, but I still have some confidence that it will return to previous moving averages. Of course, this is just my personal opinion, and it may not be correct. As the saying goes, if I'm right, I'll come back to boast, and if I'm wrong, I'll stand at attention to take my punishment.