The rhythm has reached a stage that 'requires patience'—it's neither the end of the decline nor the restart of a bull market, but a critical zone of consolidation.

BTC: This is not the peak; the real turning point has yet to come.

#BTC is approaching a key support area; this position is not a peak, at most it can be considered a continuation point of an ascending wave. Given the current rhythm, we will have to wait for at least 2-3 smaller waves to complete before a true high point can be established.

During a consolidation period, the market is often the most frustrating. It is neither biased towards long nor short, but rather towards the 'right side'.
In other words, do not guess the direction, but learn to wait for signals.

Personal suggestion: Before August 7, maintain a wait-and-see attitude, minimize actions, and watch more.

ETH: Initial signs of stopping the decline, but certainty still needs verification.

ETH is currently in a relatively interesting position:

  • Short-term trend: Weak but approaching support

  • Long-term structure: Still strong, bullish remains unchanged

From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart has shown a morning star pattern. Although it hasn't seen a volume increase, appearing at a key support level is itself a relatively standard stopping signal. This means that the recent downturn from the high may be coming to an end.

If it can quickly stand back above 3500 USD and stabilize in the consolidation range, this drop is likely just a washout for the bulls.

ETH has risen from 1400 to 3900, and now a 10% correction is quite normal. Moreover, it is already near previous highs, and to break through, it needs to build momentum.

During this phase, many people are most prone to the mistake of entering long or short positions too early.

But I want to emphasize—

In a consolidation market, when the direction is unclear, staying on the sidelines is the optimal strategy.

"Waiting does not mean doing nothing, but rather waiting for the market to give you certainty. Once it appears, act decisively."

Therefore, I choose to rest in place before August 7, not chasing highs, nor blindly shorting. If I really want to take action, it will be to tentatively build a bottom position.

Macroeconomic perspective: Interest rate cuts are not absent, but waiting for the script to unfold.

The biggest uncertainty in the market right now is still the Federal Reserve's stance.

It's not that they don't want to cut rates, but they need a time point that can be justified. After all, no one wants to be the 'fool who cuts rates and gets blamed for a crash'.

With Trump imposing tariffs and non-farm data continuously 'exploding', the market will eventually be forced into a consensus on interest rate cuts. But before that, there may still be some emotional fluctuations.

DOGE: A sample of fleeing from meme coins.

#Dogecoin has dropped quite severely in the past two days: down 4% in 24 hours, hitting a low of 0.19 with two spikes in volume, generating over 900 million in turnover in one day, a standard exit strategy for institutions.

Current support is near 0.188, with 0.203 becoming a solid resistance, as several rebounds have been pushed down.

With macro instability and capital seeking safety, we still need to see if 0.19 holds in the short term; if not stable, it will continue to dip.

XRP: Stunned by the drop; 2.75 is the lifeline.

#XRP also faced a severe drop: plummeting from 3.02 to 2.75, with institutions heavily selling during trading, resulting in doubled turnover. Although it slightly rebounded to 2.82 afterward, 2.84 above has become a significant short-term resistance.

Currently, we are watching if 2.75 is a temporary support; if it cannot hold, we will have to move down. If it cannot rise above 2.85, do not expect a sustained rebound.

ADA: V-shaped top formation, indicating significant weakness among buyers.

#ADA Recently formed an inverted V shape, a typical top signal, indicating weak buyers and noticeable momentum exhaustion. It is currently right at the 50-day moving average (0.679 USD), which is a crucial position.

If it cannot hold, it is easy to slide towards lower targets; if it holds, the first observation point for a rebound is above EMA-9, and only if it can quickly stand above it can we confirm a halt in the decline.

Summary: In trading, what you fear most is not falling, but making the wrong decision at the wrong time.

Don't be afraid of missing opportunities; when the real uptrend comes, the market will definitely give a signal; the key is whether you can wait for it.