From the rise and fall of Macau's 'Dragon Slayer Group,' we see the cognitive traps in trading.
In the casinos of Macau, there is a story about the 'Dragon Slayer Group.' This group is known for its strict discipline and highly targeted methods: they send people to monitor major casinos, specifically aiming for tables that show a 'long dragon' — once the banker or player wins 14 times in a row, they decisively go against it; if they lose, they adopt a doubling strategy until they break the long dragon.
With this approach, they made substantial profits for several consecutive years, becoming a mysterious legend in the casinos. However, when an extreme situation arose — a certain table had a continuous long dragon for 32 times — this once-glorious group completely disappeared.
This story hides the simplest truth of the trading market: experienced traders are not necessarily skilled traders, and short-term profits do not guarantee long-term survival. What truly determines the success or failure of trading is the level of cognitive understanding. Just like some people have been immersed in the market for 1 year, their depth of understanding can 'outperform' those who have been around for 10 years; while others always equate trading with 'betting high or low,' even if they get it right 9 times in a row, the inflated 10th failure can lead to total bankruptcy.
This reminds me of the typical 'Martingale strategy' in trading: it might remain profitable for 5 consecutive years, immersing users in the illusion of 'guaranteed profit,' but as soon as an unexpected large one-sided market occurs, all previous gains will instantly drop to zero, or even lead to losses.
The cruel aspect of the market lies here: it is never short of short-term 'myths,' but it is difficult to find a true 'ever-victorious general.' Those operations that rely on probability loopholes, superstitiously follow discipline yet lack risk awareness will ultimately be unable to withstand extreme market conditions. The essence of trading has never been about betting against the market, but rather about a deep understanding and respect for risk — this is the ultimate contest of cognitive level.