According to BlockBeats, on August 3, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. wrote that due to multiple macroeconomic negative factors such as the non-farm payroll data that fell short of expectations (73,000 vs. the expected 110,000), the Federal Reserve's fifth consecutive on-hold policy and internal disagreements, and the escalation of tariff tensions, the global market shifted to a "risk-off" mode: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their worst performance since April, U.S. Treasury yields fell nearly 20 basis points, and gold saw capital inflows.
Bitcoin also came under pressure, experiencing a rapid pullback from its high of $119,800 to $112,000. Its 30-day momentum dropped to +3%, and its ADX fell to 36, indicating weakening short-term bullish momentum. On-chain activity declined, but outflows from trading platforms continued to indicate continued accumulation.
Despite increased short-term volatility, the structural bullish outlook remains unchanged. Strategies and institutions increased their holdings by over 30,000 BTC in the past week. The options market's Max Pain remained stable at $118,000, with high-strike bullish positions dominating. The SEC's "Crypto Project" is also expected to ease long-term regulatory pressure on the industry.
If Bitcoin holds support at $110,000–113,000 and momentum rebounds above 8%–10%, the market is expected to retest the $119,000–122,000 range. A break below $110,000 could trigger a correction to $105,000–107,000. In the coming weeks, the balance between macro risks and institutional buying will determine the next phase of the price movement.
