Black clouds are looming, what will happen on Monday?

Everyone is holding their breath, waiting for the first strike when the market opens on Monday, with a round of selling expected during the Asian trading session. The plot will reach its climax by the evening. If the decline in US stocks is controlled within 1% on Monday, this wave of panic is likely to ease. However, if it exceeds 1.5%, the panic will be further amplified.

The market seems lively, but in reality, it is anxious, with hidden cracks spreading:

First, tariffs are back on the battlefield: In the past, people didn’t pay much attention to tariffs, but their impact is slowly becoming evident—this week’s inflation data came in higher than expected, and employment data has worsened (a precursor to stagflation).

Second, the market's "expectation threshold" has risen: This week, the tech giants reported strong earnings, but the market’s reaction was tepid, and stock prices hardly rose—good news didn’t boost the market much, but bad news could lead to a sell-off. Goldman Sachs data shows that this week saw the largest scale of high-leverage fund withdrawals since June of last year.

Third, the results of the China-US trade talks have not been released yet, and this event is expected to further ferment next Thursday and Friday—if US stocks decline early next week, Trump may release a goodwill signal. If US stocks can hold their ground, then Trump may “add drama.”