Brothers, on the weekend of August 2, two earth-shattering events occurred in the global financial circle, directly overturning market sentiment and possibly becoming the 'ignition device' for the next round of big market movements in the crypto circle!
Just now, the non-farm data has plummeted, expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have soared, confidence in the dollar has been hit hard, and the capital markets are shaking across the board!
And the worst is yet to come: **Trump issues a 'tenfold tariff iron fist' to the world!** New tariffs officially take effect on August 7, the global trade order is collapsing, and the fiat currency system is beginning to loosen!
Do you think the crypto circle will lie flat now? Wrong!
This is not the calm before the storm, but the last 'chip harvesting' before the whales buy in!
Next Friday, five major heavyweight data points are about to trigger a chain reaction: inflation, employment, factory orders, PMI, and unemployment claims, all of which are 'turnaround-level variables'!
Every piece of data could trigger a ten-day surge in coin prices or smash the last golden opportunity for bottom fishing!
Let's first look at the truth behind this week's plunge:
Double blow: Weak non-farm data + tariff nuclear bomb triggers a massacre in the crypto circle.
Epic collapse of non-farm data: The U.S. Labor Department's July employment report shows that not only have new jobs been halved, but the data for May-June has also been 'violently revised down' by 258,000! The unemployment rate rises to 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate continues to shrink, completely exposing the economic engine's stall. Upon the news, the U.S. dollar index plummeted by 1.37%, marking the largest drop since April, while gold surged—risk aversion alarms sounded!
Trump's tariff blade has been drawn: The global tariff war effective from August 7 has no way back! Swiss watches, Indian pharmaceuticals, and EU cars are the first to suffer, with tax rates as high as 39% (Switzerland), 25% (India), and 15% (EU)! Although countries like Brazil and South Africa are negotiating urgently, the panic from supply chain breakage and soaring inflation has swept the market. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other 'high-risk assets' have become cash machines, with 24-hour liquidation amounts exceeding 700 million USD, and Ethereum alone has liquidated 169 million, leaving a mountain of corpses!
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September skyrockets! Is Bitcoin's 'policy bottom' coming?
Non-farm nuclear explosion completely rewrites the Federal Reserve's script! According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a rate cut in September has soared from 40% to over 80%! 'New Federal Reserve Correspondent' Nick Timiraos published an urgent article: The door to rate cuts is fully open!
Historical turning point signals have emerged! Once rate cuts land, the floodgates of U.S. dollar liquidity will reopen, and cryptocurrencies will become the biggest winners.
During the 2019 rate cut cycle, Bitcoin surged by 35% in a month.
The expectation of easing in 2024 drives BTC from 30,000 to 120,000.
Long-term holders still hold 53% of Bitcoin supply, institutional whale Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT) has accumulated 2 billion USD in BTC, betting on an epic rebound!
But at this moment, do not catch the falling knife! Federal Reserve official Bostic urgently warns: 'In a very difficult environment', rate cuts ≠ immediate easing! The market needs to endure the test of August's inflation data, and the short-term bulls' corpses are not yet cold!
Tariff war escalates! The three deadly chain reactions in the cryptocurrency circle.
Trump's tariffs are not only a trade weapon but also three sharp knives aimed at the heart of cryptocurrency:
Miner survival crisis: Import tariffs on Chinese mining machines and chips have soared to 20%! The cost of mining in North American mines has skyrocketed, and selling BTC to pay electricity bills may trigger a second round of liquidation!
Emerging markets face capital outflow: India and Southeast Asia's tax rates reach 40%, local fiat currencies plummet, forcing investors to cut losses in cryptocurrencies to replenish positions, and liquidity exhaustion alarms are ringing!
'Safe-haven asset' faith collapses: Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. stocks and gold has broken down, plunging 6% in a single day, even more ferocious than the Nasdaq! Under the chain reaction of leveraged liquidations, the 112,000 USD defense line is precarious!
After the bloodbath, the market has shown fatal signals:
Technical aspect: Bitcoin's 117,500-118,000 USD forms a 'death pressure zone', and if the support at 114,000 USD is lost, it will plunge into the abyss at 111,000!
Capital aspect: The overall network leverage ratio is still above 25%, and short sellers have ample ammunition; any rebound is a trap for the bulls!
Five key data points are coming in a week, and the crypto circle will face intense short-term volatility!
What's even more exciting is that this week the U.S. will have five heavyweight data points bombarding the market's nerves one after another:
Monday 22:00: Factory orders monthly rate (signal of economic warmth or coldness).
Tuesday 21:45 & 22:00: Two service sector PMIs (reflecting the actual economic temperature).
Thursday 20:30: Initial unemployment claims (to determine whether the economy is deteriorating).
Thursday 23:00: Inflation expectations (determine the direction of Federal Reserve policy).
These data will further influence the Federal Reserve's policy path, and each result could trigger a 'surge' or 'collapse' in coin prices!
Market outlook:
Old Zhu believes that short-term fluctuations are a washout, and opportunities will arise after the big drop!
Currently, the trends of BTC and ETH are still in a consolidation bottoming structure, with news continuously enhancing the capital absorption logic in the crypto circle, but the market is temporarily hindered by institutional washouts and futures liquidations.
Old Zhu suggests: Don’t chase the highs easily; wait until the data + policy are finalized before taking action!
Key timing for layout and building positions in line with the trend is the only way to feast on big profits!
Brothers, this wave is not a joke, the Federal Reserve's easing + global trade disintegration = the next super boom in the crypto circle!
This is not a small fluctuation; this is the beginning of a great era!
What you need to do is not hesitate while staring at the K-line, but to understand the news, catch the rhythm, ambush with Old Zhu in advance, and feast! Feast on big profits!
Follow me, the next article will tell you: This week's building position range + potential coin list!
