It's not Powell who is affecting the market, but Trump. The macro focus should be on Trump; for the market to reverse, at least one of these two points must be addressed.

On the 28th, I warned that there were risks in the market. Trump has revived tariffs, and now he is continuously changing the narrative, criticizing Powell for influencing the market, claiming that the data has been manipulated by the Department of Labor, and that he is the just one.

In fact, there are problems with all of this. Thinking from the largest perspective, when Powell releases uncertainty, Trump uses the tariff stick to pressure many countries to push Powell. If Powell does not yield, the market will continue to face inflation due to tariffs.

Some might say that the market has already digested the tariffs, but is that the case? Tariffs bring uncertainty to the market, and uncertainty will inevitably lead to risk capital withdrawing and waiting on the sidelines. Powell has also indicated that a rate cut in September is unlikely, which poses the biggest risk.

The market has become sluggish and capital is withdrawing due to dual uncertainties. To solve this problem, one side in the current market must yield, but from a timing perspective, Powell will not yield. Even if he does, it will be after other data is reviewed to see if the data is optimized enough to concede to Trump.

So will Trump yield? No, with Trump reintroducing tariffs, the possibility of him yielding is very low.

Therefore, from a macro perspective, the market trend is quite clear:

1. The implementation of equal tariffs on August 7. If expectations are good and tariffs are successfully implemented, this wave of decline may end, and some risk capital may return.

2. Next week, two centrist Federal Reserve chairs will release positive news, and then Powell may verbally yield (though this is very unlikely).

3. The next inflation data may perform remarkably, and the market believes this data supports Powell's rate cut in September. (End of August)

From a macro timeline perspective, the only opportunity at the beginning of the month is for Trump to abandon the panic over equal tariffs or for investors to confirm that the shoe has dropped; otherwise, a definitive reversal in the market is likely to occur only in the middle to late part of this month. #美国加征关税 #美联储利率决议