In 2012, I came to Shenzhen with aspirations for the future. In early 2015, by chance, I stumbled into the cryptocurrency world; at that time, I was both excited and anxious, not knowing that this step would greatly change the trajectory of my life.
Now, I have two apartments and two cars in Changsha, a Land Rover and a Mercedes. Spending 100,000 a month is not a burden, and most of my other assets are in exchanges. But trading is not as glamorous as the outside world thinks; it is actually an extremely dull thing. After engaging in it for a long time, I have long passed the stage where I was surprised by some fluctuations.
Brothers, when it comes to the term 'rolling positions,' most seasoned players in the cryptocurrency world will think of two names: Lingxi and Tony.
During the last market crash, Lingxi shorted with 10,000 and earned 10 million through rolling positions; the whole network was shouting 'crazy'; even earlier in 2021, Tony took 50,000 in capital and rolled it to 20 million in a year. His 'rolling position guide' is still being referred to as a bible.
It's the same shorting and rolling positions; why do others lose everything while they can achieve success? Today we will break this layer of glass—rolling positions is not a 'gamblers' carnival', but a 'discipline to trap profits'.
First, understand: what is rolling positions exactly? It's not blindly adding leverage; it's 'using profits as bullets.'
Many people think rolling positions means 'full position + high leverage + stubbornly holding'; this is purely nonsense. The real rolling position, as Tony wrote in his notes: 'is like rolling a snowball; first use a small handful of snow (capital) as a base, then coat it with a layer of snow (profits) and wrap it tightly. Then go and gather new snow; the more you roll, the more stable it becomes, and you don't throw snow at rocks.'
Take Lingxi's market example: with 10,000 capital, he first opened a 1,000 short position with 10x leverage (only using 10% of the position). When it drops by 1%, he earns 100. At this point, he does not close out but adds the earned 100 back in, turning it into an 1,100 position to continue shorting—this is 'adding to the position with profits,' with the initial capital of 10,000 remaining unchanged. When it drops again by 1%, he earns 110, adds it back... Just like this, rolling it out; with a 20% drop, the 10,000 capital can roll out to 1 million, this is the essence.
Most people fail because they go all in with their capital at the beginning, add more capital when the price drops, and eventually increase the leverage, leading to liquidation with a slight market rebound.
Second, Tony's three key strategies for rolling positions: only things that can be replicated are true skills.
Tony went from 50,000 to 20 million, not by luck, but by three iron rules that still hold true today:
1. First use the 'trial position' to explore; admit mistakes if wrong and roll if right.
Tony always starts with 5% of his capital when opening a position. For example, with 50,000 capital, he first opens a position of 2,500 with 5-10x leverage. He says: 'This step is called 'testing the water temperature.' If the temperature is not right (the direction is wrong), quickly pull back, losing at most 2,500, which doesn't hurt much; if the temperature is right (the direction is correct), then slowly add more.
During that ETH surge in 2021, he first opened a long position with 2,500, earning 75 from a 3% rise, and added the 75 profit back in, making it 2,575. When it rose another 3%, he earned 77, and continued to add... just rolling it bit by bit, never going in heavily at the start.
2. Every time you roll, 'lock in' a portion of the profits, keeping the capital safe forever.
This is Tony's most ruthless tactic: every time he makes a 50% profit, he converts 30% of the profit into USDT. For example, if the initial capital is 50,000 and it grows to 75,000 (earning 25,000), he transfers 7,500 to a cold wallet, and continues rolling the remaining 17,500.
He said: 'This money is 'life-saving money'; even if I get liquidated later, at least what's in my pocket is mine.' At the peak of the bull market in 2021, he locked in 5 million in advance with this trick; when the bear market arrived, others lost everything, but he could still smile and buy the dip.
3. Take the profit when it's good, do not be greedy for 'the last copper coin.'
Tony sets a hard limit for himself: rolling positions for a single asset should not exceed 5 times, and he will liquidate once total profits reach 10 times. If 50,000 rolls to 500,000, he stops and switches to a new asset. He says: 'Rolling positions is like picking fruit; when it's ripe, pick it; don't wait for it to rot on the tree.'
Most people fail because they want to roll until the end of time: from 10,000 to 100,000, then to 200,000; when reaching 200,000, they aim for 500,000, but when the market turns, they lose even their capital.
Three: From 300 USD to tens of thousands of dollars: a template for beginners to roll positions.
Don't think rolling positions only suits the big players; 300 USD (2000 RMB) can also be played, the key is to follow the steps:
Step 1: Split the money: In 300 USD, 200 USD is the 'capital pool,' and 100 USD is the 'trial position' (maximum loss is the total amount, which does not affect the capital).
Step 2: Open a position: each time use 10 USD with 10x leverage (100 USD trial position can be opened 10 times), and the direction must be clear (for example, if bearish, stay bearish, do not switch back and forth).
Step 3: Roll it: If you make a profit, add the profit in (for example, if you earn 1 USD from 10 USD, continue to open a position with 11 USD); if you lose, switch back to 10 USD and try again, absolutely do not add to the capital.
Step 4: Lock in profits: When you roll to 200 USD (double), transfer 60 USD to the capital pool, and continue to roll the remaining 140 USD.
Last year, a fan used this trick, rolling 300 USD to 8000 USD. He said: 'The key is 'small losses, big gains'; being wrong 9 out of 10 times is fine, as long as 1 time is right, you can roll it up.'
Why do you inevitably face liquidation when rolling positions? These three pitfalls, 90% of people fall into.
Lingxi and Tony succeeded not because they dared to gamble, but because they avoided these fatal mistakes:
Unable to control their hands, frequently opening positions: some people open 10 positions in a day; the fees are higher than the profits, and before the market even arrives, their trial positions are already wiped out. Tony's rule: open a maximum of 3 positions per day; if there's no signal, stay in cash, even if it means missing the market.
Impatience, wanting to gain weight in one bite: after opening a position, they hope for a sharp drop/rise, panicking with a 1% drop or getting greedy with a 1% rise. Rolling positions relies on 'compound interest'; a 1% fluctuation rolled 10 times is about 1.1^10≈2.6 times, there is no need to rush.
Not executing the plan, emotional trading: clearly having set a goal of 'locking in profits at 50%', but seeing the market still rising, they think about 'waiting a bit longer.' When they incur losses, they want to 'add leverage to recover,' ultimately getting deeper into trouble.
Remember: the core of rolling positions is 'discipline > judgment.' If the direction is wrong, it can be changed, but if discipline is broken, liquidation is inevitable.
To put it frankly: rolling positions is not a 'shortcut to wealth for the poor'; it is a 'training ground for the ruthless.'
Before Lingxi earned 10 million, he faced liquidation 8 times; Tony went from 50,000 to 20 million, with 3 near-zero incidents in between. In their stories, luck accounts for only 10%, while the remaining 90% is 'enduring loneliness, withstanding volatility, and maintaining discipline.'
If you have 10,000 or 300 USD and want to try rolling positions, first ask yourself: can you accept ten consecutive losses without panicking? Can you stop when you earn ten times? Can you strictly follow the plan without being swayed by emotions?
If you can do it, rolling positions is your tool; if you can't, it becomes your grave.
The money in the cryptocurrency world is never 'gambled'; it is 'calculated'—calculate the risks, calculate the profits, calculate every step of the retreat before taking action. This is the truth of rolling positions.
Trading daily: the lesser-known side
Staying up late has become a regular occurrence
Staying up late is not considered staying up for our group; it's just a normal routine. That's why you often see so-called genius traders looking ten years older than they are. Fortunately, I still pay great attention to my appearance, as I make a living based on my looks, haha~
Not as carefree as imagined.
It's not as glamorous as you imagine; more often, it's a casual approach. Even when going out to play, I can't fully get into the state; a state of anxiety named 'stress' urges me not to stop. Because there are too many people who trust us, each trust is actually a pressure on us, and pressure urges us to become better.
Every day is not about feasting and socializing, but about endlessly watching the market, reading news, and reflecting and summarizing; at least that's how it is for me. The messages on my phone are never-ending.
Pressure is like a shadow that follows closely.
When it comes to the pressure of trading, it really is like a shadow that follows closely. At first, I thought about how to solve the pressure, but over time, I realized that I could only continuously enhance my ability to withstand pressure. Some people ask why I always keep an eye on the market? Because contracts are mainly for short-term trading, so I basically look for suitable opportunities. Then I respond to various questions from others; I'm a nice person, haha, and the gap in points is still very large—those who understand will understand.
My trading principles.
Say goodbye to trading by feeling and respect market emotions. Trading based on feelings often deviates from market realities; sometimes, you feel a certain coin will rise, but market sentiment leans towards bearishness, resulting in outcomes that are often unsatisfactory. Only by respecting market emotions can you align more closely with market trends.
Strictly set stop-loss levels; stop-loss levels must be determined by the market and must reflect the losses you can bear. This is key to risk control; once the stop-loss level is reached, exit decisively and do not hold onto any delusions.
Stick to your original viewpoint; if you're wrong, take responsibility. The views you analyze and derive must be executed firmly; even if it ultimately proves wrong, you must be brave enough to bear the consequences.
Trading is not about who earns more but about who goes further. Short-term high returns do not signify anything; the true path is to survive in this market for the long term.
The life lessons trading has taught me.
From trading, I have seen through the meaning of life. I have learned to examine and think about everything around me from the perspective of volatility and probability, and to see clearly what I want. This is my greatest gain from studying and researching trading.
Since I believe I've gained enlightenment, I buckle my seatbelt in the car, quit smoking, and avoid arrogance and impatience. I strive to be grounded, love learning, love working, and treat everyone and everything around me well. Breaking bad habits comes naturally and effortlessly. I bought a cheap piece of jade, engraved with 'A modest gentleman is as gentle as jade' to motivate myself.
I have realized many truths; let me casually share one: all correct purposes are to prove oneself wrong. I amusingly validated this. Now, trading requires me to quit trading. Really, I suddenly feel that a life of cheating is meaningless; this way of making money is pointless and will destroy my hope for the future.
I want to temporarily escape from a lonely life, doing things I love outside of work. I started learning calligraphy every day, practicing sketching, appreciating famous paintings, playing the electronic piano, listening to music, studying psychology, reading the Four Books and Five Classics, smiling and chatting with people proactively, inviting others to dinner when possible, and strolling in the park when I have time, enjoying trees, mountains, and water. The happiest things have nothing to do with money. And I have never thought about changing anything; being able to see and experience more of this world makes me very happy. Humanity has inherited so many interesting and lovable cultures; why would you entrust your life to candlestick charts and remain lonely for a lifetime?
These are all the things trading has taught me. The essence of trading is to reflect one's inner self and see clearly who you are! If you can maintain a balance, the market will treat you with humility; if you are greedy, the market will surely leave you exhausted; if you try to defeat the market, the market will leave you with no place to die.
"My life has been a failure!" This is the reflection of successful speculative predecessors who are out of reach when they commit suicide. Speculation is too fast and crazy; since the body can't keep up, why not slow down?
Ask me again what the essence of trading is? I only seek one defeat. Ask me again what the essence of life is? I only seek one death. Do you think this is pessimistic? Do you think this is arrogant? No! This is a calm and peaceful game attitude that is neither sad nor happy, nor fearful.
Unity of knowledge and action in trading
Unity of knowledge and action, as the name suggests, means that your thoughts and ideas must align with your actions; this is actually very difficult to achieve. I often like to describe the conflict during trading as 'the struggle between thought and action.'
If one can maintain this for the long term, it is a breakthrough. In fact, many people analyze the market correctly and with great detail, but the trades they make ultimately incur losses. This is due to a disconnect between action and one's thoughts.
There is also a situation where, when one is unsure about the market, their subjective views are highly uncertain, it is best not to trade. Why? It's actually quite simple; when you don't even dare to trust yourself, it's very difficult to do things well. Many people initially choose to take a gamble or ask others how to operate. This reminds me of a friend's investment saying: 'To gamble is a mistake, but not to gamble is to miss out.' This saying indeed makes sense, but I countered him at that time: in this market, I'd rather miss out than make a mistake.
Therefore, at this time, it is best not to gamble; neither go long nor short. Many people can't stop their hands; as long as the market is moving, they want to place orders. This problem is common. Thus, the simple principle of 'watch more, act less' has eliminated a group of people. If you keep placing orders, there are three types of people who will like you (people from exchanges, futures companies, and your brokers). I believe that the more frequently an investor trades in this market, the shorter their lifespan becomes, which is detrimental to both parties.
This also includes a situation where one is uncertain and asks others for opinions before placing an order. First, this issue must be understood: this order is not placed based on your subjective consciousness, yet it is still you who placed it. At this moment, you might think, since everyone is doing it this way, it should be fine for me to do the same. This issue can be significant; it's like heaven and earth apart.
Why? First, in others' minds, this order is generally planned for what to do if it goes wrong or to take profits when right, while you have no strategy in your own concept. Therefore, once an abnormal situation arises, you start to panic, not knowing where to start. Even if you are right, do you know when to take profits? In your subconscious, there is no concept of taking profits; only the concept of when others close their positions.
At this time, due to one's own funds and positions, the mindset is different from others. Therefore, the strategies to be taken are quite different. Some traders' faults are that they know their own views but still go and ask others how they view the market. This can lead to the following adverse phenomena:
You and his views and directions are probably similar.
The thoughts of the two individuals are completely inconsistent.
The former is fine; both can feel pleased (but this may fuel their own greed). The latter is troublesome; for example, when others' analyses seem more accurate and comprehensive than one's own, doubts about one's own judgment will arise, leading to confusion.
At this point, trading becomes completely lacking in the big picture, and it can be very limited. Therefore, I personally feel that while discussing the market is indeed necessary, attention should be paid to the circumstances. It's best to communicate more about mindset and share past mistakes, rather than discussing how to view future market trends. I believe that discussing how to view future market trends is fundamentally not significant; who knows what the future market will look like?
Because what we need to do is not to predict how accurate the market is, but to have strategies for when the market is unfavorable to us; making money when the market is favorable is a natural result. Therefore, if the strategy is good, there is no need to be overly anxious or mysterious about market analysis, and I personally believe that blindly predicting the market is unrealistic behavior.
The key to successful investing.
Successful investing is simply about repeatedly doing simple, correct things. The market is like the primitive forests of Africa; survival is the most important. The principle of technical analysis: it should be simple, simple enough that it doesn't require much thought, and avoid being superstitious about complex technical analysis methods.
Have confidence in the system you set for yourself, rather than relying on personal emotions, biases, or wishful thinking. To surpass and improve it, the system you intend to use must be tested over time and through real practice.
You must have patience to wait outside for the system to issue operational signals. Once the position is established, you must have the same patience to hold without moving until the system issues a reversal signal. You must strictly adhere to principles and operate according to the signals indicated by the system; only when the market shows a strong trend should you enter. When you judge the trend to be incorrect, immediately cut the position and exit; when your trend analysis is correct, pyramid scale in. Money is made by 'sitting' rather than through operations; you can only close positions when objectively judging trend reversals.
How to pass the boring time of long-term holding is also key to whether one can hold long-term positions. If necessary, one can use the 'ostrich policy' to avoid the intense market fluctuations in the middle of major trends.
The risks and returns embedded in the price are possibilities, not certainties. We can use technical tools to judge the probability of such possibilities occurring, but we cannot say they will definitely happen; this is why stop-losses are necessary.
You can only trade based on your views of the market. Once a person starts to predict things, their vanity will manifest, making it difficult for them to accept anything in the trading process that differs from their predictions. However, true wealth is realized through shrewd exits because it allows traders to stop losses and roll profits.
In short, people make money by discovering themselves, realizing their potential, and aligning with the market's rhythm. When a rebound or consolidation occurs, people become hesitant, and trading often becomes frantic. Short-term trades begin to appear frequently, and the direction is not the only thing lost; the self is also lost. This self is belief, and its trading system!
This kind of loss will mostly cause traders not to go further. As long as you trade according to signals and follow the rules, you will inadvertently find that trading is not that difficult. Stick to a method, research it thoroughly, control your mindset, and you will succeed.
Most investors do not realize that only a few days each month can yield big profits. The rest of the time, if they are not in trouble, they are doing their job. Always remember to keep the account intact and wait for the big market to come.
Trading is like warfare; if you have a 50% chance, you don't fight; if you have a 70% chance, you still don't fight; you must wait until you have a 100% chance before you make a full strike. But the battlefield changes rapidly; how can there be absolute certainty? Technical analysis is the behavioral discipline of traders; its main purpose is not prediction. It helps you identify trends and follow them. Move when you must move; stop when you must stop. In a strong market, the buy signals in technical indicators may be accurate, while the sell signals may not be; in a weak market, the sell signals may be accurate, while the buy signals may not be. A position taken 'in the direction of the trend' may yield substantial profits, so do not abandon ship lightly. During this process, many temptations may arise, enticing you to jump on small fluctuations. Unless you are familiar with this path and have set stop-loss points, do not enter or exit casually.
People invest based on the fluctuations in prices, but if human emotions fluctuate faster and larger than prices, they lose the most precious calmness, making it easy to misjudge the trend. Of course, it is also easier to overturn one's established investment plans repeatedly and fall into the dilemma of chasing highs and cutting losses.
Secrets to success in the cryptocurrency world.
Profit comes from sticking to the trend positions that others give up, seizing the opportunities that others do not want, and doing the things that others dare not do. In investment, there is only giving up due to insufficient persistence, not complete failure. The same goes for trading; originally looking favorably on a direction, but as the market fluctuates, one changes their original direction. Originally bearish, but because the market rises a little, they exit and reverse to go long, ultimately delaying the downward trend and causing losses. Such examples in trading are countless; any success requires persistence.
Four mindsets that successful traders should have
Do not become arrogant and complacent in profit: an arrogant person will ultimately destroy themselves in their pride. In the process of investment and financial management, if a person becomes arrogant when making money, they will always face a day of losses. The reason is that an arrogant person will ignore others' opinions and suggestions due to their small achievements. Even when the market changes, they will stubbornly believe in themselves, thinking their decisions are correct, while neglecting risk prevention, leading to potential losses.
Do not rush to recover losses: making profits and incurring losses in cryptocurrency trading is normal. After discussing profits, let's talk about losses. Profits can make some people arrogant, while losses can trigger a strong desire to recover. However, recovering losses also requires timing; if one is too eager to recover, they may make irrational decisions. For example, some people, in their eagerness to recover losses, will bet all their trading funds on a single cryptocurrency that seems to have great potential. However, the market is always unpredictable and uncontrollable; if that cryptocurrency drops, not only will they not recover their losses, but they may incur even greater losses.
Do not be greedy for quick gains: accumulating wealth through cryptocurrency trading is a long process. If one is both greedy and desires quick profits during this process, it is essentially impossible to achieve wealth growth. Both of these mentalities will lead people to chase benefits blindly; when faced with high returns, they will lose their rationality. But high returns mean high risks; blind investments can only lead to failure. Only by pursuing stable growth of wealth can one balance risks and profits.
Do not worry about gains and losses: investors who worry about gains and losses often agonize over their investments for a long time, fearing their money will incur losses. Once they finally decide to invest, this mentality becomes even more pronounced. As soon as they see a decrease in their account balance, they become anxious and restless. If it decreases too much, they will either withdraw their investment or seek rumors hoping to recover quickly, ultimately leading to losses. At the same time, if they hear news about platforms running away or withdrawal difficulties, they will worry about the safety of their investment, and even if their platform has no issues, they will choose not to invest further, making it difficult to continue on the path of investment and financial management.
Intraday watching skills and points to note.
Market sentiment and emotions: the strength of bullish or bearish sentiment can be analyzed from changes in trading volume and open interest. If volume increases but the price does not fall, it may be about to stop falling; if volume increases but the price cannot rise, it may be nearing a peak. The requirements for volume during the uptrend and downtrend are different. During an uptrend: sustained and even volume increases are needed; if there is a significant reduction in volume or a very large volume appears, the uptrend may be coming to an end. During a downtrend: as long as volume increases when breaking through key positions, the downtrend will continue. If the price stops rising at a certain level but open interest keeps increasing, with buy and sell orders being placed at lower and lower prices, it indicates the price may fall. Increased open interest with stagnation in price is an excellent opportunity for shorting, or increased open interest with stagnation in falling price can lead to rebounds.
Key levels: draw the pressure, support, trend lines, etc., on the chart, and take swift action when the price reaches or breaks through these key levels. I personally use the golden ratio to predict pressure and support.
Trading rules: only one type of asset can be traded during a particular period; continuously track the traded asset until it no longer possesses speculative value before giving it up.
Market observation windows: a one-minute window is prepared for entry and exit timing; a three-minute window is used to monitor the situation after entering; a thirty-minute or sixty-minute window is used to monitor daily trend changes at any time.
Operation reminders: there are trading opportunities every day; if stop-loss occurs, do not rush to make it back immediately. Once a position is stopped out, that trade is complete; the next trade is a new one, and how much to earn is how much to earn. Do not set the target for the next trade based on the previous trade; otherwise, you will incur losses each time.
It is essential to keep records: try to record your feelings and operational details at that moment, as words do not lie. Only through real records and serious summaries can you find direction for the next correct decision.
Never go all in: whether in the cryptocurrency world or the stock market, true mature investors do not choose to go all in continuously. Because black swan events and extreme situations will definitely happen, especially in a market as volatile as cryptocurrency. This seems like a simple truth, but it is very difficult to execute in practice. Of course, you may have various reasons to go all in, such as having little capital or thinking that the asset you just bought is about to rise. Regardless, you will always have an impulse to not let your money sit idle and to invest it at any time. I completely understand this feeling. But reality always ruthlessly teaches us lessons. Therefore, I decided that after the next wave of increases, I would at least set aside about 15% of my position. I initially wanted to reserve more, but I know I might be reluctant, so I will take it slow; after all, cultivation is not achieved overnight. This reserved fund will only be invested again when the market experiences a drop of around 30%.
A sharp decline is the best test of human nature: a sharp decline is both a mirror reflecting human nature and a touchstone of human nature. Just like most people can share joy but find it hard to share suffering, each crash not only causes the price to plummet but also reveals the truth of human nature. In the past, I helped a few strangers earn several times their money; some were grateful and insisted on transferring coins to thank me; while others felt they were impressive when making money, but once they lost, they pushed the blame onto me. This crash particularly highlighted these differences more clearly; of course, I'm not foolish; after this, I already know how to treat these people.
Always only buy those coins that you can hold peacefully: honestly, the reason I wasn't particularly panicked this time is that over the years, whether buying coins or stocks, I have only bought those assets that I believe are completely fine to hold for more than 5 years. This has become my amulet for being able to sleep peacefully. Of course, I have to admit that the various fluctuations in the market recently have also tempted me, and I bought some small coins, but because the amounts are small, I can accept it even if they go to zero, so I didn't panic too much. I hope everyone can remember and follow this principle, as it will save you a lot of trouble and significantly improve your quality of life. Only by holding truly high-quality assets can one achieve true peace of mind.
Profound insights.
The survival rule in the cryptocurrency world is not to pursue short-term windfalls but to build a stable profit system. The compounding effect is like rolling a snowball; the longer it goes, the greater the power. Only by establishing a scientific position management and risk control mechanism can assets continue to appreciate amid market fluctuations.
In the face of a rapidly changing market, we need to establish a dynamic observation system: when Bitcoin breaks through key resistance levels, when mainstream coins show divergence signals, when the market sentiment index enters extreme zones, these are all important nodes worth paying attention to.
A true winner in the cryptocurrency world can reap profits in a bull market and preserve strength in a bear market.
The path to enlightenment in trading is the same: from seven losses to two break-even to one profit; it is simply about being focused and not being greedy for a variety of profit models. Stay committed to one trading system, and over time, this system will become your ATM.