Bitcoin Cycle Theory and Core Viewpoints Summary

1. Core of Bitcoin Cycle Theory

This theory is based on Bitcoin's halving event that occurs every 4 years (every 210,000 blocks, the miner's reward is halved). Past halvings have triggered 'supply shocks', forming a 'accumulation - surge - crash' bull-bear cycle:

Historical verification:

✅ After the 2012 halving, the price rose from $12 to over $1,000 in 2013.

✅ After the 2016 halving, it rose from $650 to $20,000 in 2017.

✅ After the 2020 halving, it surged 760% to $69,000 in 2021.

Associated factors: Price cycles are related to retail capital inflow and macro liquidity (such as China's M2 expansion).

2. Changes and Challenges in Cycle Theory

After the halving in April 2024, the cycle pattern weakens, mainly due to:

Institutional large-scale participation: After the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, institutions (such as BlackRock, MicroStrategy) have absorbed over 1 million Bitcoins (equivalent to nearly 10 years of supply), locking in supply long-term, decoupling price from the halving narrative.

Market maturation: Daily trading volume is declining, price volatility is decreasing, and variables such as macro trends and policy changes are having a greater impact. The 'supply shock' of the halving can now be ignored for Bitcoin's $2 trillion market cap.

Core viewpoint: Most believe the traditional 4-year cycle has 'failed' or 'evolved', with bull-bear phases shifting from 'surge and crash' to more sustained growth, and bull markets potentially extending to 5-10 years.

3. Impact and Recommendations for Retail Investors

Strategy adjustment: The old strategy of 'buy after halving, sell after 12-18 months' is losing effectiveness, and a shift to long-term strategies (such as dollar-cost averaging) is needed, focusing on fundamentals (ETF fund flows, on-chain metrics, miner behavior) and macro indicators.

Changes in market characteristics: The retracement range may narrow from 80%-90% to 30%-50%, but short-term profit potential decreases, making timing more difficult, and altcoin markets may be suppressed.

Core principle: Emphasize patience, diversification, and focus on long-term growth trends rather than short-term speculation. $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密项目 #美国加征关税 #加密市场回调