Last night, the US non-farm payroll data was significantly worse than expected. The Federal Reserve revised the non-farm data for May and June, but Powell still refuses to cut interest rates. Trump is deploying nuclear submarines, and his intention to crash the market is too obvious. Bitcoin plummeted to around $112,000, and Ethereum crashed to around $3,430. Tiansweet reminded in yesterday's article that there would be another sharp drop. Tiansweet added some long positions around $113,000 yesterday; the $112,188 add point hasn't been reached yet, currently at a small loss.
Bitcoin
After the sharp drop, the weekend saw Bitcoin and Ethereum primarily oscillating. The rebound pressure decreased, and the adjustment continued to add positions to stabilize the average price and recover some holdings.
There are currently no signs of Bitcoin bottoming out on a small scale. The daily chart shows some increased volume, and a relatively filled bearish candle has formed. The weekend will mainly be for consolidation. The daily K has seen five consecutive bearish candles; a small rebound is normal, but operationally, treat it as a short.
The daily K line price has broken below the lower support level. MACD continues to show bearish momentum, and KDJ and RSI have been oscillating downward after being overbought at high levels. On the 4-hour level, the hourly chart shows the price has returned above the lower track. After such a sharp drop, it is normal for indicators to recover and rebound.
Resistance levels: $115,000 and $116,000, here, short positions can be entered around here.
Support levels: $113,000-$112,000-$111,000 here. My ideal position is in the $110,000-$112,000 range.
Key focus: Can the small-scale structure in this range turn bullish in the first half of next week? If so, I will buy spot Bitcoin directly in this range! The market opened sharply down at the beginning of the month; be careful not to repeatedly test the left side of the contract.
ETH
Ethereum has dropped 400 points, ETH is showing a very standard double test, reminiscent of the rapid rise during the previous bull market after a pullback.
This time, Ethereum's price is no longer strong, mainly due to the collective outflow of ETFs. On the first day of August, Ethereum ETFs experienced their first zero inflow in over two months, with all funds flowing out except for BlackRock. In fact, since July 28, major institutions for ETFs have started to watch and inflows have shown a decreasing trend.
The chip changes for Ethereum over the past half month are:
Early Ethereum miners and ICO big holders are selling; ETFs and some US listed companies are taking over.
From a long-term perspective, the distribution of Ethereum chips is changing, which is a positive sign. This process may take several years.
In the short term, whether it's ETFs or US listed companies, the continuously rising price is obviously not beneficial for their accumulation, so a correction is also reasonable.
Currently, the hourly chart has shown a recovery rebound, returning above the lower track. The upper resistance levels to focus on are $3,530, $3,580, and $3,630. Short positions can be set around here, with targets looking down at $3,480, $3,430, and $3,380.
When to buy the dip?
Ethereum: I will enter in batches at $3,300-$3,400; BTC: $112,000-$111,000 (if the bottom point changes, Tiansweet will update promptly, please pay attention to the follow-up)
Altcoins
Altcoins have continued to plummet without any signs of stopping. This drop is a very good opportunity to filter altcoins. Choose quality assets; buy more as it drops. After this ends, the direction will still be upward. The crazy bull market will arrive in August and September, and by the end of the month, you will thank your brave self at this moment!
DOGE, PEPE: Buy DOGE around $0.1885 and PEPE around $0.0000095. In October, Dogecoin and Solana's ETF are very likely to be approved. I will definitely look for a low point to start building positions in August and September.
PENGU: The SEC has officially confirmed receipt of the Canary PENGU ETF application, marking the first mixed spot ETF for meme tokens and NFTs. Tiansweet plans to buy around $0.030 and $0.028. This round of altcoin trend leaders will not cool down quickly; the market-making is strong and the resources are top-notch. The next PEPE is one to watch for in the future.
ENA: ENA is a quite strong asset that tends to recover quickly after significant drops, and there have been quite a few positive news reports about ENA recently.
LTC: Triggered an oversold signal on the daily level. Looking back, the previous two oversold signals appeared in the bottom area. Will this time also present a similar opportunity?
AAVE: Finally showed a decent pullback. The current price hasn't reached the daily EMA200, and I will continue to wait for it to retest this position. If it reaches and shows an oversold signal, I will buy the dip.
September rate cut?
After the non-farm data was released, CME's September rate cut bets jumped from 39% to 80.3%. The downward revision, which disregards the downside, is actually the Fed preparing data for a rate cut in September. After averaging over three months, the employment numbers are only over 30,000; if interest rates are not cut now, the labor market will definitely collapse!
In fact, the downward revision of non-farm data has been happening from last year to this year. It's just that this time the extent is large enough to cause market panic. However, the scale on August 21, 2024, was actually larger. We are now very clear that the Fed will cut rates on September 19, 2024. From this perspective, large-scale downward revisions of non-farm data may be a precursor to rate cuts. If this logic holds, the probability of a rate cut in September is even higher, one might say it is almost certain.
