I did not have high expectations during the altcoin season because of two viewpoints. The first viewpoint is that although $ETH is highly correlated with the Russell 2000, the Russell 2000 has not shown any obvious signs of reversal, and considering the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, the current liquidity is insufficient to support a full altcoin season. This is because an altcoin season in the crypto space is unlikely to occur independently; if there is an altcoin season in the crypto world, there is a high probability that there will also be an altcoin season in the US stock market.

This is due to the effect of capital overflow, but in reality, the US stock market does not have a strong capital overflow. The simultaneous explosion of altcoins in the US stock market and the crypto space is quite difficult, and I have written about this topic in the weekly report for at least four weeks.

Secondly, regarding the rise of ETH, we have compared the stock on exchanges, on-chain data, contract data, and ETF data. Compared to the selling pressure of $BTC, the rise of ETH is more about the increased purchasing power and trading volume in the primary and secondary markets of ETFs. But how much of this overflow capital will actually flow into altcoins, especially from traditional investors?

It’s still my personal opinion, which may not necessarily be correct, but I believe that without a full monetary easing, that is, until 2026 or later, a comprehensive altcoin season is still a bit difficult. The same goes for the US stock market.