Last night at 20:30, the U.S. non-farm data revealed a 'surprise': only 73,000 new jobs were added in July, far below the market expectation of 104,000 and even halved from last month's 147,000! This should have been the spring for the bulls.

As a result, BTC and ETH experienced a slight rebound, but within half an hour, both fell sharply again, with BTC dipping to a low of 112,722 and ETH retracting below 3,431; the entire crypto market displayed a classic 'fake-out' scenario!

Just last night, I said that even if the non-farm data is disappointing, it won't lead to a surge; a real breakout must wait until the market digests the interest rate cut expectations and re-prices the funds. As a result, a big wave came late at night.



Who is actually dumping the market? And who is using the data to create a 'local prosperity' to harvest retail investors? Let's expose the three main culprits behind the crash!


The Fed's interest rate cut expectations are 'apparently warming up', but in reality, they are being constrained.

After the disappointing non-farm data, the probability of a September rate cut by CME soared to 72%, briefly boosting crypto prices. However, last night, Powell's core aides went hawkish again, suggesting that 'the decline in inflation is not solid and won't easily shift due to a single month of job losses'. This statement effectively hedges against the positive implications of the non-farm data, and the market quickly realized: rate cuts are a hook, not a real solution!


Market sentiment has not recovered, and on-chain funds are still experiencing net outflows.

According to Lookonchain data, in the past 24 hours, whale addresses netted out 12,000 BTC and over 170,000 ETH. The largest transfer was from the old wallet '3D9...' transferring 4,850 BTC to Binance, directly crushing short-term support. In other words: the good news is for retail investors; the whales are offloading at high prices.


Macroeconomic black swan: A new round of tech war between China and the U.S. may escalate.

Last night, the U.S. Department of Commerce suddenly announced the addition of five Chinese AI semiconductor companies to the export control list. This move sparked turbulence in the Asian markets, with tech stocks in Hong Kong collectively plunging, leading to a flight to safe-haven assets as the dollar flowed back in, resulting in a V-shaped recovery of the dollar index—this is extremely unfavorable for crypto. Global capital has entered a 'panic defense' mode, causing selling pressure on risk assets like BTC.


Investor strategy advice:

Don't rush to bottom fish! Last night's movement has confirmed that 'positive news ≠ market positivity'; blindly entering the market is likely to lead to being harvested. Pay attention to the on-chain dynamics this Saturday and Sunday; whether whales replenish their positions will determine market direction. It's not too late to wait for clear volume to stop the decline or regulatory news to land before positioning.


The crash is not the end, but rather the 'final judgment' before the capitulation is completed.

The disappointing non-farm data is just a facade; the real market crash is the 'double act' of capital collaboration against news speculation. Fuxiang predicts that once U.S. bond yields start to decline next week, BTC and ETH may experience a rebound in sentiment, marking a golden window for re-entry.


Hit follow, and don't be a 'latecomer' to the news; we will ambush the next rebound in advance!#加密市场回调