Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. July non-farm employment data is finally revealed: only adding 73,000 jobs, far below the market expectation of 104,000, and even halved from the previous value of 147,000! This is not 'cooling down', this is directly 'shutting down'!
The market instantly exploded; Wall Street's pricing logic is reshuffled: the dollar index plummets, gold surges. U.S. Treasury yields fall sharply, and interest rate cut expectations are fully advanced! Meanwhile, our most concerned cryptocurrency is quietly brewing an emotional rebound: after last night’s PCE inflation exceeded expectations, BTC and ETH's sentiment dropped to a freezing point; now, a disappointing non-farm data might just be the last straw that breaks the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
Critical point: How much longer can the Federal Reserve remain stubborn?
This data has clearly told us:
The U.S. labor market is starting to show clear signs of cooling down; this is not a soft landing, it's a turning point downward.
Combined with yesterday's PCE price data, the Federal Reserve has entered a dilemma of 'inflation not settled, employment under pressure'.
This means: the market has successfully pressured the situation; if the Federal Reserve remains stubborn, just wait for a crash!
Market Practical Reference: Is BTC/ETH brewing a breakthrough opportunity?
Current market situation:
BTC has shown a small rebound in the short term.
ETH has risen back to the 3660-3670 range, stabilizing in the short term.
But be aware: we are still in the early stage of news release; the real surge may only explode after the market digests interest rate cut expectations and re-prices funds.
My viewpoint is clear:
If the U.S. dollar index continues to weaken in the next 24 hours and U.S. Treasury yields maintain a decline, then BTC and ETH will likely confirm a rebound at a turning point. However, Federal Reserve officials still maintain their tough stance on interest rate cuts over the weekend, and the market may fluctuate again.
Operational Suggestions (Focus on short-term, prepare for mid-term)
Key focus for BTC: 115911, stabilizing here is an entry opportunity.
Key focus for ETH: 3583 support, as long as it does not break, the rebound remains unchanged.
Range thinking + rhythm mastery is the key to victory at present!
I am Fu Xiang's prediction 'Old Chen', focusing on news interpretation and targeting market critical points!
Non-farm payrolls cooling ≠ immediate surge, but the emotional turning point has appeared; opportunities are for those who lay out in advance, not for those who chase after rises! Follow me, and I'll update weekend strategies + the latest interpretations of Federal Reserve officials' speeches tomorrow morning, don’t be the 'one step late' leek!
