Non-farm payrolls are not a cure-all
The market initially expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September by less than 40%, but once the non-farm payrolls were released, the expectation skyrocketed to 80%!
1. New jobs added: 73,000, and it's really okay to not look at the revised data
In July, non-farm payrolls added 73,000 jobs, which was below the expected 104,000.
If we don’t look at the revised data from the past few months, it seems like U.S. employment is starting to weaken? But looking back:
In May, the initial report was 144,000, and in June, it was reported as 147,000; suddenly revised down to 19,000 for May and 14,000 for June, totaling a “loss” of 258,000.
You ask where did all the people go? Is it a “numbers game”?
Even more exaggerated, the level of 14,000 new jobs can be compared to the worst times during the pandemic in 2020. Even the Labor Department said that such a large downward revision exceeds the normal range—who believes it?!