The sharp decline in the crypto market last night was not coincidental; BTC once again fell below the 113,000 mark, with the core trigger being a 'disruptive' non-farm payroll data revision report — previously regarded as 'beneficial easing', the employment data was suddenly revised down, directly shattering the market's fantasy of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

How 'violent' is the data revision? It nearly overturns the previous logic.

The impact of this revision report is equivalent to throwing a bucket of cold water on the market:

  • The non-farm payroll employment in May was directly revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, a reduction of more than 87%;

  • June data is even more extreme, cut from 147,000 to 14,000, only 9.5% of the original value.

This level of revision is rare. It is important to note that the non-farm data for May-June was previously interpreted by the market as key evidence of 'cooling in the job market', which was also the core basis for supporting the 'September rate cut probability rising to 60%'. Now that the data has been reverted, it means that 'employment weakness' is merely an illusion — the actual resilience of the job market far exceeds expectations, instantly reducing the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.

Using a cryptocurrency analogy: it’s like a project party claiming 'will spend 10 million U for buyback', and after the community gets excited, suddenly changing to 'only prepared 500 U', it's no surprise the market collapses.

Why can revised data collapse the market?

Superficially, it appears to be a change in data, but at a deeper level, it is a 'complete reversal of expectation logic':

  • Previously, the market had already bet on easing based on the expectation of 'cooling employment' (both US stocks and cryptocurrencies had a rebound);

  • The revised data indicates that the job market is not as weak as previously thought, and rate cuts may be delayed or even canceled — this means that the 'liquidity easing expectations' supporting asset prices have been drastically undermined.

More crucially, this kind of 'official revision' directly undermines the market's trust in the data. When core economic indicators become 'unreliable', funds instinctively choose to seek safety, with cryptocurrencies being the first to feel the impact as high-risk assets. Last night, not only did BTC fall, but the NASDAQ index also dropped 2%, confirming the 'reversal of liquidity expectations' transmission logic.

Subsequent impacts: do not underestimate the chain reaction of 'expectation collapse'

In the short term, the market needs to reprice the 'Federal Reserve policy path':

  • The probability of a rate cut in September may plummet from 60% to below 30%;

  • The US dollar index may return to above 100, further suppressing risk assets.

For BTC, breaking the 113,000 level is not just a numerical change, but could trigger a chain of technical stop-losses — a large number of long positions in the 115,000-120,000 range may be forced to liquidate, exacerbating short-term selling pressure.

But it should also be noted: the impact of data corrections is often a 'one-time release'. If there are no worse news (such as inflation rebound) afterward, a technical recovery may occur after the overselling. However, in the short term, the 'interest rate cut fantasy' has been shattered, and the market is highly likely to enter a phase of volatility seeking the bottom.

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