Cryptoquant data reveals that bitcoin is undergoing the third major profit-taking correction of the 2023–2025 bull market, typically leading to a convergence phase before reaching new highs.
Expected Convergence After Profit Taking for Bitcoin, Ethereum
According to the Cryptoquant Institutional Insights report, this wave appeared after bitcoin (BTC) surpassed $120,000 at the end of July 2025. It resembles previous profit-taking corrections triggered by significant price milestones: the first in March 2024 after the launch of the US bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETFs) near $70,000, and the second from December 2024 to February 2025 after bitcoin's price surge exceeded $100,000 following the US presidential election.
Cryptoquant researchers have identified approximately $6–8 billion in realized bitcoin profits by the end of July, a figure that matches the peaks of previous waves. New whales—entities holding bitcoin for less than 155 days—are the main force driving the sell-off as prices hit record levels.
Source: cryptoquant.com
The Spending Profit Ratio (SOPR) further confirms this trend. Data from Cryptoquant shows that the SOPR of Short-term Holders increased above 1.05, indicating that recently purchased coins were sold at a profit of 5 percent. This aligns with the notable sale of 80,000 BTC on July 25 by OG whales.
The profit-taking correction extends beyond bitcoin, researchers note. Ethereum-based whales holding USDT, USDC, and WBTC together realized profits of up to $40 million per day by the end of July—a level consistent with previous cycles.
The inflow to exchanges reinforces this activity. The transfer of bitcoin to exchanges peaked at 70,000 BTC in a single day, consistent with the peaks of previous waves. The altcoin flow also increased, signaling a broader risk-off sentiment, according to analysts.
History shows that such profit-taking corrections often lead to 2–4 months of price convergence or mild corrections. Cryptoquant indicates that this cooling phase has begun, evidenced by weakening demand from US investors. The price spread on Coinbase has turned negative, suggesting that US buyers are no longer paying above the global spot price.
