97% of holders are lying down to earn $1.4 trillion! Beware of the largest profit-taking massacre in history
1. Policy Dynamics: Expectation Gap Leads to Short-term Volatility
Details on Bitcoin reserves absent: The White House report on July 30 confirmed that the U.S. holds 198,000 BTC, but did not disclose the accumulation path, leading to profit-taking and a brief drop in BTC to $115,000. Long-term policies still support compliance, which is favorable for institutional entry.
Stablecoin Legislation Shuffle: The GENIUS Act requires 100% reserves for stablecoins + Federal Reserve supervision. If passed:
Favorable for USDT/USDC and BSC/Tron chains;
Unfavorable for tech giants like Meta/Google issuing coins, strengthening the position of the crypto camp.
2. Market Data: Whale Sell Pressure vs. Institutional Support
$9.6 billion in sell-off did not break support: At the end of July, whales sold 80,000 BTC OTC, with prices quickly stabilizing at $119,000, showing strong buying support. Currently, 97% of circulating BTC is profitable, with unrealized profits of $1.4 trillion, requiring new funds for hedging.
Institutions buying at a hundred times the support: Corporate bond purchases exceed 100:1, with the spot ETF seeing a net inflow of $641 million over two weeks, as large funds position themselves on dips.
3. Technical Signals: Key Price Point Showdown
Triangle Convergence Awaiting Breakout: BTC has fluctuated between $115,000-$121,000 for 18 days:
Bullish Defense Line: RSI 24.6 is oversold + long-term moving averages are bullishly aligned;
Bearish Attack: Falling below $115,000 could trigger a liquidation wave at $111,000-$112,500.
New investors only account for 30%, the market is not overheated but needs to guard against leveraged cascading explosions.
4. Shenlong Operational Strategy: Focus on Breakouts and Policies
Short-term: Closely monitor the $115,000 support and $121,000 resistance. If August's Fed rate cut expectations strengthen, it may push BTC to challenge the previous high of $122,000.
Mid-term: The urgent drop range of $111,000-$115,000 can be staged for building positions, primarily targeting policy-benefiting sectors:
Regulatory stablecoins, BTC spot ETF-related stocks;
If the GENIUS Act is approved, focus on BSC/Tron ecological RWA projects.
Core Conflict: Policy Vacuum vs. Institutional Support.
Spot positions remain unchanged, leverage strictly adheres to stop-losses, waiting for the Fed to shift or reserve plans to materialize.
Opportunities and risks coexist in the crypto space; stay alert and finding the right timing is key. Shenlong has also discovered a project with huge short-term surge potential! Want to keep up? Click on the profile picture to follow Shenlong and receive free shares! Follow Shenlong for trends
