Mining Accident Warning! August 9th is the Last Escape Window for 100,000 Miners
Pressure on miners and industry reshuffling, Bitcoin mining difficulty has reached an all-time high, expected to decrease on August 9th
Profit Crisis: Bitcoin mining difficulty has reached a historical peak, but the price has fallen to $117,000. Combined with the halving reward of only 3.125 BTC, miner income has plummeted by 51.6%. The energy consumption for a single BTC has reached 854,000 kWh, and the shutdown price for small and medium-sized mining operations has risen to $55,000.
Short-term Relief: The difficulty is expected to be adjusted down by 4.97% on August 9th, increasing miner earnings by 5%. However, if the price does not rise, high-cost miners will still face the risk of selling off.
Hashrate Differentiation: Leading mining companies deploy efficient miners to reduce costs; small miners turn to cloud mining to capture full rewards. The top four mining pools monopolize 70% of the hash rate, raising concerns about centralization.
Market Dynamics and Trends
Supply and Demand Balance: Miners sold BTC in July, but institutional ETFs had a net inflow of $237 million in a week, creating a hedge. If this continues in August, it could offset the selling pressure.
Key Catalysts: Bitcoin is hovering between $116,500 and $120,000; a breakout requires institutional funds or a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. If the difficulty adjustment leads to a recovery in hash rate, it will enhance confidence in network security.
Energy Transition: Mining companies are relocating to low-cost energy areas, and global hash rate may reach 1.2 ZH/s by the end of the year, but the daily electricity consumption of 384 GWh pressures a shift to green energy.
Strategic Insights
Market Forecast:
Bullish: Difficulty adjustment, institutional takeover breaks through $120,800, challenging the previous high of $122,000.
Bearish: Institutional funds slow down, and miner selling drops to support at $114,300.
Action: Short-term investment in efficient mining company stocks; hold spot until $130,000-$150,000.
Conclusion: Neutral to Bullish. The difficulty adjustment provides a breathing window for miners, accelerates industry reshuffling, and in the long term looks at energy innovation and price breakthroughs. Keep a close eye on: Hashrate recovery and institutional fund flow after August 9th.
