《Non-Farm Data's Astonishing Reversal, the Shocking Truth Behind Market Trends》
In the ever-changing financial market, a perplexing yet thought-provoking event has recently occurred. When the non-farm data was supposed to show a bullish trend, the market failed to rebound as expected and continued to decline. What could be the reason for this?
Everything starts with the bizarre downward revision of the non-farm data for May and June. The number of new jobs added in May was drastically revised down from 144,000 to 19,000, and June's data also suffered a heavy blow, revised down from 147,000 to 14,000. This means that a total of 258,000 jobs were revised down over the two months, a staggering difference of tenfold. Such a shocking downward revision is indeed rare, but undeniably true.
According to common logic, such unfavorable non-farm data should pave the way for interest rate cuts; however, it triggered a wave of short-term panic in the market. If the initially published non-farm data had been like this, the Federal Reserve would have had sufficient reason to directly cut rates yesterday. In this context, Powell's series of actions naturally became the focal point of market controversy.
The poor performance of the non-farm data theoretically should favor expectations for rate cuts, but the magnitude of this “misaligned downward revision” is extremely rare, raising doubts about whether there were any artificial adjustments involved. Even with numerous explanations later, the market may struggle to fully accept it in the short term.
However, as market sentiment gradually stabilizes and digests this shock, if this weak non-farm data can be viewed as a signal for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, then the sentiment for risk assets like U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies may hope to quickly restart a warming journey, ushering in a new era of prosperity once again. Let us wait and see how the financial market will interpret new trends after this data storm.
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