In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has fallen by 3.25%, consistent with the risk aversion sentiment in the U.S. stock market. The main reasons include: 1. Macroeconomic impact transmission — The market panic triggered by Trump's proposed tariff plan has led to a correlation of 0.89 between cryptocurrencies and the Nasdaq index. 2. Increased leverage liquidations — Bitcoin liquidation amount reached $179 million, a 169% increase within 24 hours, exacerbating the selling pressure. 3. Increased regulatory pressure — Indonesia has raised the cryptocurrency trading tax from 0.21% to 1% (for offshore exchanges), which has negatively affected market sentiment.
In-depth analysis
1. Stock market contagion effect (bearish impact) Overview: The correlation between cryptocurrencies and the Nasdaq 100 index (QQQ) surged to 0.89 in the past 24 hours, the highest since March 2025. This change stems from Trump's proposed tariff hike plan, which caused S&P 500 futures to drop by 0.9%, impacting the cryptocurrency market. Significance: In this macro shock, traders view cryptocurrencies as risk assets rather than safe-haven tools.
2. Acceleration of long squeeze (bearish impact) Overview: Bitcoin liquidation amount reached $179 million within 24 hours, an increase of 169%, with long positions accounting for 96%. Open interest increased by 8.9% to $81.7 billion, indicating that market leverage levels are too high. Significance: As Bitcoin fell below the support level of $115,000, forced liquidations triggered a chain of sell-offs, driving down altcoins like PEPE by 7.8% and SUI by 9.6%.
3. Regulatory uncertainty (complex impact) Overview: Indonesia has raised the trading tax for offshore cryptocurrency trading platforms to 1%, suppressing retail trading activity. Meanwhile, Circle's expansion of USDC business on Hyperliquid has failed to alleviate negative market sentiment. Point of concern: August 15 is the deadline for tax compliance in Indonesia, which may suppress trading volume in the Asia-Pacific region.
Conclusion Today's market decline reflects the increasing sensitivity of cryptocurrencies to changes in macroeconomic policy and mechanisms in the derivatives market. Although the overall trend has remained bullish over the past 30 days (up 13.4%), traders should pay attention to whether Bitcoin can hold the Fibonacci support level of $36,500 (38.2% retracement level). If ETF funds flow back, whether altcoins like ETH (down 2.17%) will decouple is worth continued observation.
