Is the next major surge point for Bitcoin coming? On-chain signals are quietly changing
Bitcoin has recently been fluctuating around $120,000, unable to break through, but from an on-chain perspective, the market may not be as weak as you think.
First, let's look at a key indicator: the MVRV ratio.
This indicator is actually a reference line for measuring Bitcoin's current price relative to its 'fair value'. Historically, when the MVRV is below 1, it often indicates a market bottom; when it exceeds 3.7, it usually signifies a market top.
Currently, the MVRV ratio is around 2.2 and is gradually approaching its 365-day moving average. Historically, each time the MVRV approaches the annual average, it is often followed by a surge, even nearing overbought territory.
In simpler terms: Bitcoin is currently in a phase of energy accumulation, rather than weakening.
Data shows that the current proportion of 'new addresses' in the market is 30%, significantly lower than the highs of 64% and 72% in March and December last year, respectively. What does this mean? It indicates that there is still not much chasing-the-high sentiment, and the market remains in a healthy mid-bull market, rather than in a late-stage frenzy.
Additionally, long-term holders (those holding for over 3 years) have not been significantly selling off, and the released tokens have quickly been absorbed by the market without triggering sharp corrections.
This is actually a very favorable structure: new funds are entering the market, but old holders are not panic selling.
The conclusion is clear:
From an on-chain perspective, Bitcoin has not yet peaked; rather, it is in a stage of consolidation and buildup. As long as buying pressure follows, the next wave of upward movement is still possible.
Of course, short-term resistance still exists, with significant pressure around the $120,000 to $125,000 range. But as long as it maintains its consolidation without breaking down, and continues to oscillate for accumulation, this bull market may be far from over.
$BTC $BNB $SOL $LTC
