The unemployment rate is at the center of policy, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has personally admitted this is the core issue determining the fate of the interest rate cut in September.

At 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight, the U.S. July non-farm payroll data is about to ignite the global market.

Current market forecasts only 110,000 new jobs, far below June's 147,000, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.2%, and hourly wages increasing by 0.3%. This set of data will directly determine whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September—last night, an unprecedented hawkish-dovish showdown within the Fed erupted, with two board members voting to demand an immediate rate cut!


The cryptocurrency market faces three major life-and-death challenges tonight:

  1. Interest rate cut expectations strangulation war
    Powell states:The unemployment rate is the key to policy.
    If the unemployment rate surges past 4.3% or new jobs fall below 100,000, the probability of an interest rate cut in September will ignite instantly, and the dollar is on the verge of collapse—Bitcoin will violently surge directly to $125,000!
    Conversely, if employment exceeds 150,000, the hawkish stance of only one rate cut this year will crush the bulls, and BTC could plummet to 110,000.

  2. Counterattack signal on the corpses of $200 million in liquidations
    Yesterday's Fed decision has bloodied the cryptocurrency market:2 billion dollars liquidated in 1 hour, BTC spiked to 116,000!
    But whales are secretly bottom-fishing: CME Bitcoin options open interest surged, with $75,000 call options piling up.

  3. Tariff bomb detonates simultaneously
    August 1st coincides with the day the U.S. imposes a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico!
    If the trade war escalates,inflation rockets will tear apart Federal Reserve policy—The script of gold surging $50 in one day may be replayed by Bitcoin tonight.

Brother Lei's analysis:
At 8:30 PM tonight, the U.S. will release the July employment report, focusing on three key numbers:

1. New jobs added, expected at 110,000, down from 140,000 last month.

2. Unemployment rate, expected at 4.2%, any increase of 0.1% is significant.

3. Wage growth, if hourly wages rise quickly = inflation cannot be contained.

This data is the admission ticket for the September interest rate cut!

If the unemployment rate spikes above 4.3% + new jobs fall below 100,000 → Green light for rate cuts is fully open
Case study: last October, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%, and Bitcoin surged 8% that day.

If new jobs exceed 150,000 → The dream of interest rate cuts shatters, BTC immediately plunges
Case study: This January, non-farm payrolls reported 350,000 new jobs, and Bitcoin plummeted 15% in a week.


Brother Lei's viewpoint:
Bad data = Rocket fuel for Bitcoin
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has personally admitted that the biggest fear now is the soaring unemployment rate.
As long as the unemployment rate breaks 4.3%, institutions will inevitably frantically speculate on interest rate cut expectations—Bitcoin soaring to $120,000 is not a dream!

The big players have picked up chips among the corpses
Yesterday, after the Fed's statement, $200 million was liquidated in 1 hour, but look: CME Bitcoin options open interest surged by 30%, and whales are frantically accumulating $75,000 call options.
After the crash in March 2020, the same script is playing out again—600% surge in 3 months!

Beware of tariff black swans
Today, the 30% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on the EU officially take effect!
If the trade war escalates, gold surged by $50 yesterday, and Bitcoin could replicate the market conditions at any time!


When the non-farm payroll knife falls, it is a battle for wealth for you and me! Follow Brother Lei and never get lost!

#非农就业数据