ETH 3900 High Jump, Next Stop 4000 or 3000?

Yesterday, ETH broke through 3940 USD, reaching a new high for the year! Analysis by Lao Hu

1. The culprit behind the crash surfaces: Is the tariff benefit actually a "smokescreen"?

On the surface, the crash was triggered by the implementation of the US-EU tariff agreement, leading to a "buy the expectation, sell the fact" scenario — on July 28, the US and EU announced a tariff reduction, and the market surged, with ETH hitting 3940 USD. Once the news was fully digested, profits were quickly taken, resulting in over 3 billion liquidated in 24 hours across the network.

However, digging deeper into on-chain data reveals that things are not that simple:

On the eve of the crash, Ethereum's PoS exit queue suddenly surged to 743,800 ETH (worth over 2.9 billion USD), causing historic congestion! Withdrawal delays exceeded 12 days, and the staked whales couldn't escape.

2. The bulls' hidden cards exposed: 460 million ammunition is ready, just waiting for a gunshot.

Institutional bullets are firing: In July, Ethereum ETF inflows reached 4.67 billion, crushing Bitcoin's net outflows;

A mysterious whale consumed 108,000 ETH in a single day (worth nearly 280 million USD), with an on-chain route pointing directly to custody cold wallets —

3. The next scene: Is it "the tyrant lifting the tripod" or "free fall"? Pay attention to these three signals.

In this big game, retail investors need to understand the whales' body language to stand firm:

Staking exit queue: If the number drops below 500,000 ETH, the alarm is lifted, and the bull run channel reopens;

Exchange ETH reserves: Continued decline means whales are accumulating, while a sudden surge indicates a countdown to sell-off;

4-hour EMA defense line: If it holds above 3750 USD, it signifies the bulls' declaration of war #以太坊ETF