Quick analysis
Dogecoin faces downward pressure near the $0.22 level (-8% over the week) due to technical retracement, but speculation around ETFs and institutional interest could be potential price catalysts.
Price drop: DOGE decreased by 8% this week, testing support at $0.21.
ETF potential: The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve DOGE ETFs by Fall 2025 (Bloomberg).
Whale movements: 310 million DOGE were amassed within 48 hours despite sell-offs.
Detailed analysis
1. Market indicators
DOGE is trading at $0.223 (-8.48% over the week), with a daily trading volume of $2.29 billion (+12.55% due to buying attempts after the drop). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 37 indicates weak momentum, while a 35% rise over 30 days highlights recent volatility. Whale wallets control 41.74% of the supply, creating unbalanced price risks.
2. Technical developments
Pattern collapse: A decline in peaks and troughs since the July 25 high at $0.29.
Key levels: Support at $0.21 (lowest level in 2025) versus resistance at $0.25 (50-day moving average).
Increased trading volume: The July 30 sell-off saw a trading volume 23% higher than the average, indicating a potential capitulation in the market (TokenPost).
3. Business and partnerships
Bit Origin launched a $500 million Dogecoin treasury fund, inspired by MicroStrategy's strategy in Bitcoin. Nasdaq-listed companies now hold 40.5 million DOGE (worth $8.9 million), though the inflationary supply (5 billion new DOGE annually) remains a concern (Yahoo Finance).
4. Regulatory catalysts
The US Securities and Exchange Commission may approve DOGE ETFs by October 2025 if Coinbase's futures contracts meet oversight requirements. 21Shares, Grayscale, and Rex Shares have pending applications, with a 51% approval likelihood according to Polymarket (CoinMarketCap).
Summary
The fate of Dogecoin depends on whether ETF approvals can offset the technical retracement. While whale accumulation and corporate treasuries indicate long-term confidence, testing the $0.21 support remains critical.
Monitoring this week: Will DOGE be able to maintain the $0.21 level with clarity on ETF decision timelines?