Fundamental Information
1. Key points from the Federal Reserve's July 2025 meeting.
Interest Rate Policy: The benchmark interest rate is maintained at a range of 5.25%-5.50%, marking the seventh consecutive time the current rate level has been kept. The Federal Reserve emphasizes that to ensure inflation steadily declines to the 2% target, it will maintain high interest rates for a longer period.
Inflation Assessment: Core PCE inflation remains above the target, but a downward trend is evident. The Federal Reserve states that 'more data is needed' to confirm whether inflation is consistently slowing.
Labor Market: The labor market remains overall strong, but signs of 'slight cooling' have begun to appear, with a slight slowdown in labor demand.
Interest Rate Cut Path: There may be only one rate cut this year (the market originally expected 2-3 cuts); if inflation data continues to improve, there may be a window for the first rate cut by the end of the year.
Risk Outlook: There are concerns about geopolitical situations (such as the Middle East situation), uncertainties in fiscal policy, and issues such as credit tightening, a declining real estate market, and decreased consumer confidence.
2. Trump announced a 50% tariff increase on Brazil, but exempted several industries and postponed the effective date.
3. Trump will impose higher tariffs on countries that have not reached a trade agreement, including Canada and Mexico.
Technical Analysis
BTC: The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, without making any decisions about a rate cut in September. The US dollar index has risen sharply in the short term, and market expectations for a rate cut have been delayed, causing high-risk assets (including crypto assets) to quickly retreat. Bitcoin briefly fell below 116K but subsequently rebounded collectively due to Trump's comments regarding tariff relief, with Bitcoin closing the daily line with a long lower shadow.
From the daily structure, Bitcoin is still in a high-level range-bound zone, with strong resistance at 120K above and strong support at 116K below. The MA30 daily moving average is extending up to around 116K, and the gap between the K-line and the 30-day moving average has been filled. The time for high-level consolidation has entered its final phase, and the market is about to face a new directional choice. Trading volume continues to shrink, and outside capital is in a wait-and-see state, creating a cautious market sentiment. The subsequent trend needs to focus on whether it breaks out above 120K or falls below 116K to confirm a new directional signal.
The 4-hour line indicates that during the early morning period, there was a brief volume surge that dropped below 116K but quickly rebounded. It has now formed two consecutive large bullish candles, although the trading volume has not kept pace, suggesting that the rebound's sustainability might be weak. In terms of intraday operations, closely monitor the resistance at the 119K-120K positions above and look for bearish opportunities; focus on support at the 117K-116K positions below.
ETH: In the current daily trend, the moving averages show a bullish divergence, and the structure is robust. There has been no significant deep correction in the past month, indicating strong bullish control. However, in the past ten days, the trading volume has shown a pattern of decreasing volume on the rise and increasing volume on the pullback, indicating that Ethereum lacks upward momentum, with clear profit-taking in the short term.
After briefly falling below the 14-day moving average yesterday, the daily line closed with a long lower shadow bullish line. The K-line has re-established itself above the 7-day moving average and is currently forming a small bullish line, indicating a robust and strong bullish performance in the overall technical landscape. The monthly line currently shows a 55% large bullish candle, positioned in a triple top formation. The monthly line is about to close today, and caution is advised for a potential drop that could result in an upper shadow line.
The 4-hour line shows a significant rebound, with K-line arrangements turning upward. Prices are approaching the rebound high from the previous day, while the 1-hour line currently exhibits stagnation. In terms of intraday operations, pay close attention to resistance at the 3880-3920 positions above, and support at the 3780-3740 positions below.
Altcoins: As high-risk assets, altcoins react very strongly to macro news. Currently, the sentiment in the altcoin market is weak, with significant declines, and it is easy for daily declines to erase multiple days of gains due to market sentiment fluctuations. The market is heavily speculative.
Multiple regions have issued warnings about 'stablecoin scams', and regulatory risks are accelerating. Coupled with increased uncertainty regarding Federal Reserve policies, high-risk assets are under heavy pressure. For altcoins, it is essential to remember: avoiding blind bottom-fishing can prevent being trapped by consecutive large declines, and not being overly greedy for top returns can lead to real profits. The value of successfully escaping a peak once far exceeds that of bottom-fishing ten times. Avoid participating in coins that have been in a prolonged sideways trend with significantly reduced trading volume. Prioritize trading structures that 'pull back without breaking after the launch', and avoid entering when the risk-reward ratio is below 2:1. Readers can refer to selected articles from the public account, combined with my strategies and the corresponding price trends, to clearly understand my trading thoughts!
(Note: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is advised when entering. The above content is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice; it is for sharing purposes only.)