Fundamental Analysis
1. The U.S. SEC has officially permitted Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs to conduct 'physical subscription and redemption' operations, meaning authorized participants can directly exchange BTC, ETH, and ETF shares. This mechanism optimizes and reduces the arbitrage costs of ETFs, enhancing product liquidity, allowing institutions to use native assets for position reduction or redemption operations, which is expected to gradually boost the actual buying demand for BTC and ETH. At the same time, the relaxation of restrictions on options positions makes ETF trading tools more abundant, helping to enhance market participation and trading depth, making volatility easier to manage, and potentially expanding the scale of funds further. However, it is important to note that this positive news has already been partially absorbed by the market, and the demand growth brought about by the improvement of the ETF mechanism is a gradual process, not one that will trigger a sudden price surge. If there is no significant price increase when the news is released, the market may experience a 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' trend.
2. The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on Grayscale's spot Litecoin ETF to October 10.
3. Regulatory agencies in multiple regions have issued warnings, alerting the public to be mindful of new types of scams related to 'stablecoin investments.' These official risk warnings indicate a clear trend of increased regulation, and off-chain funding channels will face more restrictions, potentially squeezing market liquidity.
Technical Analysis
BTC: In yesterday's research report, it was clearly stated that Bitcoin needs to pay attention to the resistance level at 119. Short positions can be considered at this level, while the support level is around 117. During the European trading session yesterday, Bitcoin repeatedly touched the 119 line, and after the U.S. market opened, it fell below 117, the overall trend was completely in line with expectations. From a daily line perspective, Bitcoin is still in a high-level range (120K-116K) consolidation, but due to the prolonged sideways movement, the previous upward trend line (the blue line in the chart) has been somewhat damaged. From the perspective of trading volume, there was a significant increase in volume in early to mid-July, while in recent days, there has been a clear decrease in volume during consolidation, showing a divergence between volume and price, indicating that market participants are becoming more cautious. This situation of high-level stagnation and consolidation accompanied by decreasing volume is usually a signal that a market reversal is imminent. For the subsequent market trend, if the bulls want to break through, a significant increase in volume and a breakout above 120K must occur, with a solid bullish candle closing; if the bears want to take control, a significant volume drop below 116K with a solid bearish candle closing is required. These signals need to be closely monitored to judge the market direction in August. The 4-hour chart shows that after Bitcoin dipped to 117K during the U.S. trading session, it has started to rebound, and it has formed three consecutive long lower shadow bullish candles. A continuation of the rebound is expected during the Asian trading session. In terms of daily operations, we still need to pay attention to the resistance at 119K-120K above and look for short opportunities, while the support around 117K-116K below is crucial.
ETH: Currently, Ethereum's trend remains strong but has entered a key short-term resistance zone. After several consecutive bullish candles pushed the price higher, there is a slight adjustment in volume at high levels, indicating a contest between trend continuation and potential reversal. In recent days, trading volume has noticeably shrunk, indicating a weakening willingness of bulls to follow, with price rising while volume declines, which is a typical divergence between volume and price, also a common signal of an imminent market reversal. In the subsequent market trend, if Ethereum can effectively break through the psychological resistance level of 4000 with significant volume, it can open up upper space for continued upward movement; conversely, if it falls below 3700 with volume, the short-term bullish structure will be compromised. The 4-hour chart shows that the market has exhibited a small downward trend in recent days, rebounding after dipping to around 3700 during the U.S. trading session, currently forming three consecutive bullish candles. In terms of daily operations, attention should be focused on the resistance at 3860-3900 above and the support at 3750-3710 below.
Altcoin Analysis
Bitcoin is in a state of high-level consolidation, indicating a certain level of profit-taking and cautious sentiment in the short-term market. The activity of altcoins and Ethereum has decreased, suggesting that major funds have not yet entered the market on a large scale. Recently, most altcoins have experienced a second dip at the daily line level, but the volume has not effectively increased, indicating weak willingness to build positions. Some popular projects (such as AI, staking, and RWA tracks) have shown rapid surges followed by quick pullbacks, which is typical 'trap and wash' behavior. Most cryptocurrencies are still operating below the downward trend line, and the bulls have not broken through critical trend resistance. Meanwhile, large funds are showing a clear 'waiting on the sidelines' state, primarily engaging in short-term speculation, and market enthusiasm shifts rapidly, lacking sustained market support. Currently, altcoins are not suitable for long-term value investment, but rather for quick in-and-out short-term operations. In a situation where the profit effect is low and risks are high, it is advisable to remain on the sidelines and wait for a new round of opportunities before decisively entering.
Risk Warning: Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and caution is advised when entering the market. The above content is merely personal opinion, shared for informational purposes only, and does not constitute investment advice.