When the retail investors start discussing 'this time is different', the Federal Reserve is already ready with the sickle. History always repeats itself in various forms. Bull markets are born during Federal Reserve rate cuts, die during rate hikes, and torment people during sideways movements. The macro cycle determines the major trends in crypto. Powell clearly signaled a hawkish stance in his speech early this morning.
The panic decline due to the short-term market has coincidentally aligned with our recent bearish outlook. Friends who have seriously followed my ideas must have made a fortune during this bearish wave, taking off right from where they started. This precise prediction is not baseless; instead of envying others' brilliance, it’s better to find the right people to follow. If this is your first time catching a bearish wave with the teacher, congratulations! But remember—maintaining your gains is harder than making them; staying calm and continuously learning is the long-term survival strategy in the crypto world. Looking back at the market this morning, Bitcoin faced pressure and fell back after a slight rebound to the 118,738 line last night, with the bears breaking down strongly all the way to a low of 115,768. Ethereum also faced downward pressure after rebounding to a high point of 3829 last night, currently retreating to a low of 3675. This evening, we accurately captured the entry point for shorting amidst the rebound, around 118,600 for Bitcoin and 3818 for Ethereum, positioning for a bearish wave. Under this strong decline, Bitcoin bears were advised to decisively exit around 115,800, securing a gain of 2800 points. Ethereum was advised to exit around 3687, securing a gain of 131 points. Trends are like wind; the allure of the crypto world is truly magical.
The current market shows that the midline on both the daily and four-hour charts has been strongly breached. This line is a crucial battleground between bulls and bears. Once lost, the market direction will clearly turn bearish. In terms of movement, it has also penetrated the lower support points, with the intensity of adjustments increasing, and the momentum for rebounds is weak, with repeated attempts to rise ending in failure and significant pressure. In this weak pattern, bulls find it difficult to quickly reclaim lost ground, and the lack of rebound strength suggests that penetrating the lower points has become almost a certainty. Further analysis reveals that as the highs continue to decline and key support levels are lost, the lows during the adjustment process closely follow, indicating that the adjustment trend has not yet ended and will take time to complete. Therefore, future strategies should focus on shorting opportunities after rebounds, closely following the rhythm of the trend.
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