Powell will unleash a massacre tonight!

On the eve of the interest rate decision, the market is in a state of alarm, not daring to make any moves, and the Bitcoin market is seemingly at a standstill. However, at two o'clock tonight, the results of the interest rate decision will be announced, and Powell will give a speech at two-thirty. Will this be a positive sign?

According to the latest interest rate expectations, the probability of a rate cut this time is basically 0, so those hoping that Trump can pressure for a rate cut at this meeting can sit down and not get too excited. However, the focus of this meeting is whether Powell will convey signals for a rate cut at the next meeting, starting the first rate cut of the year. I think the probability of this is quite high.

Because Trump just met with Powell last week, and he used the position of the next Federal Reserve Chairman as a bargaining chip to sway other Fed officials. I believe the probability of the Federal Reserve starting to cut rates in September is increasing significantly, and if you look at the chart, the probability of a rate cut in September has already exceeded two-thirds, so the likelihood of Powell adopting a more dovish stance tonight is quite high, which would be a positive sign for the market.