🏛️【Federal Reserve Decision Day Briefing】
✅ It is basically impossible to cut interest rates today
📅 July 29, 2025
🔍 Why this judgment?
🧠 Market consensus is clear:
CME FedWatch tool shows a 97% probability of "keeping the current interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%".
🎙 Federal Reserve officials' attitude:
Powell and most officials have repeatedly stated:
"We need more data to validate; now is not the time to cut rates."
📈 Inflation pressures remain:
Core inflation in June was 2.9%, still above the Federal Reserve's long-term target of 2%,
Relaxing too early could lead to a "setback".
⚖️ Minor disagreements still exist internally
Governors Waller and Bowman may lean towards a small rate cut (25 basis points), but are expected to remain in the minority;
Despite President Trump publicly pressuring again, the Federal Reserve still emphasizes "data first, independent decision-making".
📅 The real rate cut window: possibly in September
The market is currently more focused on:
Whether inflation continues to decline
Whether the job market continues to weaken
If both data support, the Federal Reserve may initiate its first rate cut of the year in September.
In the official dot plot, two rate cuts for the year remain the mainstream prediction.
🧭 Key points to watch in tonight's press conference:
Will Powell hint at "a possible rate cut in September"?
How will he comment on the upcoming data (CPI/employment/GDP)?
Will he retain flexibility in the policy path?
🎯 Brief prediction summary:
Item
Expected Conclusion
Will there be a rate cut?
❌ Very unlikely
Policy interest rate
✅ Maintain at 4.25%–4.50%
Dissenting members
Expected 1–2 people, in favor of a rate cut
Next decision window
🔜 September (if data supports)
📌 Trader's advice:
Today mainly focus on emotional fluctuations + guiding expectations for speculation;
BTC and ETH may experience "shoe-dropping volatility", it is recommended to maintain light positions and pay attention to Powell's speech direction. $BTC
