Is the black swan on the 31st about to unfold? The world is about to be flipped again; Trump is acting too quickly.
📉 July's rate cut was mere talk, but Trump 'flipped the table' early.
Powell's rate decision met market expectations: No rate cut in July, this talk did not cause a major shock, but provided an opportunity for **Trump's 'flipping the table' action**.
⚡ Trump 'throws a big card': A sudden 50% tariff arrives.
Trump has imposed a 40% tariff on Brazil, with the previous 10% tariff accumulating to 50%.
Behind this tariff is Powell's failure to respond with a rate cut as Trump expected—'Since you want to see the data, I’ll show you the data!'
🛑 Corporate costs soar: Beverages, coffee, beef, etc., will be severely impacted.
Brazilian fruits, coffee beans, and beef are major imports to the U.S., and the increased tariffs directly impact the costs in these industries.
Corporate costs will rise rapidly, and inflationary pressures will be transmitted to consumers in the short term.
🔁 Chain reaction triggered by tariff escalation
Other low-priced goods tariffs are also adjusted, with changes to the exemption policy for copper-related items and goods below $800.
Result? Corporate spending increases significantly, inflation will rise within weeks, ultimately affecting consumers and the overall economy.
📊 Canada has made a 'clear statement': Trade negotiations are postponed, and global trade may be disrupted again.
Canada has also indicated that the trade negotiations scheduled for August 1 will be indefinitely postponed, and other countries may follow suit.
Purpose? Sanction Powell, force a rate cut; Trump is clearly ready for a 'showdown' with Powell this time.
🔮 Future outlook: August will be full of uncertainty.
If Powell does not yield, the timing for a rate cut may be delayed until October.
Tariff policies will bring greater market volatility; August and September may enter a 'torment period' due to high uncertainty and inflationary pressures, requiring investors to stay vigilant.
📊 Rate cut probability trend:
The probability of a rate cut in September is 49.6%, down from 60% before the decision.
The full-year rate cut pricing is 36 basis points, down from the previous pricing of 44 basis points.
💡 Investment strategy recommendation: Respond cautiously to short-term fluctuations
Market volatility increases, especially as tariffs may lead to rising corporate costs impacting overall inflation levels.
If Powell insists on not cutting rates, the inflationary pressure from tariffs may bring the market into a high volatility period.
After Trump 'flipped the table,' the high uncertainty in the market may intensify in the short term. Investors need to prepare in advance, remain cautious, and focus on Powell's next moves and changes in global economic policy.$BTC $ETH
