Bitcoin’s recent surge to nearly $119,000 has put it in rare territory — not just in terms of price, but also investor psychology. After months of steady accumulation, long-term holders (LTHs) are beginning to sell, signaling a shift that could shape the next phase of this cycle.
A Turning Point for Long-Term Holders
The data is clear: wallets that have held #bitcoin for over 155 days — often considered the most patient and strategic investors — have offloaded 52,000 BTC since the asset topped out around $118K. That’s not just a number; it’s a signal.
This behavior mirrors what we saw in late 2024, when Bitcoin broke above $65K and climbed toward $100K. At that time, long-term holders also transitioned from accumulating to distributing — a natural rhythm in any mature market cycle. But make no mistake, it usually precedes volatility.
Short-Term Holders Feeling the Heat
While long-term holders lock in profits, short-term holders (STHs) are starting to sweat. Wallets holding #BTC for one to three months now sit on just 13% unrealized gains — down sharply from 69% earlier in the cycle. For comparison, in previous bull markets (2012 and 2021), similar holders were sitting on triple-digit returns before the tops were in.
This thinning cushion means that if the market dips, these newer entrants may be the first to capitulate — especially if key support levels give way.
A Pause, or Just the Calm Before the Next Leg?
While some see these signs as the beginning of a cool-off, others argue we’re still mid-cycle. Analysts are split:
Matrixport flagged the possibility of a "tactical pause" driven by external factors like upcoming Fed decisions and a new White House report on digital assets. Macro uncertainty always introduces hesitation — especially after a strong rally.
Rekt Capital sees technical promise: $BTC recently closed above $119,200, which he believes confirms a bullish breakout pattern — as long as that level holds.
CrypNeuvo, meanwhile, warns of a short-term dip to fill a CME futures gap around $114,300 — a common pattern in crypto that often plays out before another leg up.
So what’s next? That depends heavily on whether Bitcoin can defend the $118K zone. Hold it, and momentum could quickly return. Lose it, and we could see a sharper retrace before bulls regain control.
What to Watch Now
$118K support: This is the line in the sand. If Bitcoin maintains this level, it validates the recent breakout and could attract more buyers.
CME gap near $114K: Gaps have a habit of filling — and if this one does, it could shake out weak hands before the next push.
Macro headlines: Fed policy and regulatory noise are wildcards right now. Expect volatility around announcements.
The market is entering a delicate phase. Long-term holders are cashing in, short-term profits are fading, and macro factors are muddying the waters. But this isn’t necessarily bearish — it’s normal. Bitcoin doesn’t go up in a straight line, and every rally needs to cool before it climbs again.
If you’re a long-term believer, this pullback may be the breather you’ve been waiting for. For everyone else, now’s the time to stay sharp, watch support levels closely, and remember: conviction always pays best in crypto cycles.
Update on Lagrange
Lagrange (LA) saw a modest 0.8% uptick in the past 24 hours — a move that, while small on the surface, is drawing attention among short-term traders and speculators. Why? Because the rebound may not be as random as it seems.
Here’s what’s fueling the renewed interest in LA.
Oversold… and Ready for a Bounce
After slipping into deep oversold territory, LA finally showed signs of life. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) dipped below 30 — a classic threshold that often signals a potential reversal. On July 29, RSI14 clocked in at 29.73, just enough to catch the eye of technical traders scanning for rebound plays.
Momentum indicators started flipping green as well. The MACD histogram turned positive for the first time in nearly three weeks, and price briefly reclaimed the 7-day moving average — all of which suggested that the heavy selling seen earlier in July might be losing steam.
Combine that with an 11.8% jump in trading volume (now at $25.7 million), and it’s clear opportunistic buyers are stepping back in — at least for now.
Buyback Buzz Still in Play
Adding to the mix is lingering optimism around a potential token buyback. Back on July 14, the Lagrange Foundation announced plans to repurchase LA tokens and manage them through regulated custodians. While no exact date has been given, the announcement alone continues to influence sentiment.
Historically, similar moves by zero-knowledge (ZK) projects have led to double-digit price jumps — with some seeing 12–18% rallies after confirming buyback activity. The hope is that reduced supply will create a more favorable setup for upward price movement.
Until the foundation executes — or delays — the plan, that narrative will likely keep speculative interest alive.
The Float Factor: Volatility Amplifier
Another key detail? LA has a low circulating supply — only about 19.3% of total tokens are in the market. That makes the price more sensitive to shifts in sentiment or sudden buying activity. In other words, when LA moves, it can move fast.
But that low float cuts both ways. While it can amplify upside moves, it also means the token is vulnerable to sharp pullbacks if momentum fades.