Today I studied the time patterns between Bitcoin halving days and the highs and lows of market cycles.
When a bull market rises without needing any reason, and any pullback signal is treated as a buying opportunity, we must maintain a clear mind and independent judgment; the cycle will not be extended indefinitely by your good wishes.
The market peaks in greed and bottoms in fear, and the most lethal turning point is often not the moment when bad news drops but when everyone uniformly shouts, "This time is different" — the stronger the consensus, the more risks are fermenting in the shadows.
1. Brief review of the Bitcoin halving cycle patterns 📈
🔵 Historical data shows that lows typically appear about 16 to 18 months before the halving, indicating that the bear market is about to end, and one can start accumulating.
🔵 Highs, on the other hand, usually occur about 18 months after the halving, marking the peak of the bull market, when everyone thinks they are investment geniuses, and continuing to hold assets often carries significant risk.
We can observe the time differences between highs and lows and the halving dates by examining the past three complete cycles. For clarity, I had grok create a historical halving cycle comparison table, where the highs, lows, and time differences are clear at a glance.
The average time difference for highs is about 480 days, but it shows a gradually extending trend. This may stem from the increasing maturity of the market and the rise of institutional investors.
Based on these historical patterns, for the current cycle, I speculate that the high may occur around 540 to 570 days after the halving, specifically between October and November 2025, with prices reaching over $130,000.
2. What to expect for the next cycle 👀
For the next cycle, starting from the 2028 halving, it is expected that the low may appear about 516 days before the halving, based on historical averages.
Specifically, the low may fall around October 27, 2026. At this point, the market may experience a correction period following the current cycle's high, with prices potentially retreating to 20% to 30% of the previous high. As for the high, it is speculated to appear about 550 days after the halving, around September 27, 2029.
In other words, if you missed this round, don’t panic; take the time to summarize and review your operations to avoid making the same mistakes next time.
The good news is that there’s just over a year left until the next bottoming opportunity; during this time, focus on making money outside and working to buy the dip.
