加密大ok
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Bybit may indeed be the true culprit behind this 'financial terrorist attack.'
After the on-chain investigation report released by the ZKJ project party, it directly exposed some people's pants—someone had long been sharpening knives by the KOGE 'retail investor pit'!
From the ZKJ report, it can be seen that someone exploited the weak on-chain liquidity of KOGE and the extremely narrow LP price of KOGE-ZKJ, causing a flash crash by withdrawing the pool, and then using the liquidity obtained from a large sell-off to completely drain the liquidity, resulting in a snowball effect that directly turned into an avalanche! Withdraw pool → flash crash → blood-sucking ZKJ → sell-off → liquidity exhaustion → price collapse again... This entire sequence of actions is clearly the work of a professional team that has 'planned for three months and harvested in three minutes'! Today, we will uncover Bybit's seven deadly sins:
From the ZKJ report, it can be seen that someone exploited the weak on-chain liquidity of KOGE and the extremely narrow LP price of KOGE-ZKJ, causing a flash crash by withdrawing the pool, and then using the liquidity obtained from a large sell-off to completely drain the liquidity, resulting in a snowball effect that directly turned into an avalanche! Withdraw pool → flash crash → blood-sucking ZKJ → sell-off → liquidity exhaustion → price collapse again... This entire sequence of actions is clearly the work of a professional team that has 'planned for three months and harvested in three minutes'! Today, we will uncover Bybit's seven deadly sins:
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为什么会这样——交易中的遍历性
在 paulwei @coolish 的实验中，4 个对照组设定（是否完整经历T1~T10）正是以遍历性概念为基础展开的。
🎰10 万人各带 1000 元参与抛硬币游戏，正面赚 80%，反面亏 50%，听起来稳赚不赔。
但经历 100 轮后他们的平均财富呈现指数型增长，但大多数人趋近破产，只剩下为数不多的几个幸存者。
❓为什么会这样——交易中的遍历性。
什么是 #遍历性？
遍历性是指在一个随机过程中，如果我们观察足够长的时间，其时间平均值可与同时平行的总体集合平均值相等。
但基于炒币中存在爆仓、归零这类不可逆事态，一旦踩中，便再也无法参与市场交易，那么就会丧失遍历性。因此，币圈中的群体平均并不等于个体命运，也存在幸存者偏差。
上述抛硬币游戏是典型的非遍历性陷阱。误把群体平均当成个体命运，总觉得再来一局就能翻盘，再开一单就能改命，再打一把就能上王者.
下面通过一场交易竞赛，帮助大家更好理解。
🆚交易竞赛规则如下
初始本金：10 万元
目标：稳定将本金上升到 100 万元
📑要求
> 每次交易必须全仓 all in
> 持有 1 天后卖出
> 一旦资金归零即出局
🪙标的
> Meme代币：单日收益率在 0% 到10000% 之间均匀分布，但有 1% 的概率归零。
> BTC：单日收益率固定为年化 20% ，按 365 天计算，单日收益率约为 0.05479%
🤔提问：请问你应该选择哪个标的，才能稳定将本金上升到 100 万元？
有人寄希望于连续踩中几波优质 Meme 实现自由，但大多数人都无法遍历 Meme，本金有限，输几次就彻底出局了。
我把这个问题丢给 Grok，给出的结论是 $BTC 是稳定达到 100 万元的更优选择，因为重复地操作 Meme 会导致长期收益率迅速下降。
你选对了吗？
别出局，但也别旁观。
#凯利公式 给出最优下注比例，避免了过度下注后遭遇极端行情被迫永远离场的情况发生，也规避了下注过少导致的增长缓慢，找到那个既能长期赚最多，又能活得下去的平衡点。
假设你看好的某代币胜率 60% ，赔率 2:1 ，凯利公式会告诉你只下注本金的 20% ，而不是梭哈。这样即使失败，你仍有翻盘的筹码！
人们的交易策略中不可避免地参杂着不理性因素，沉没成本、损失厌恶、过度自省等都可能让你在归零的边缘孤注一掷，一旦失败，整局游戏便宣告结束。
James 和凉席的结局就是很好反面教材。
🤡https://x.com/JamesWynnReal/status/1930816065145078117
在市场中摸爬滚打 5 年之久，我愈发认为——长期成功的秘诀是学会把控下注的比例。
交易并不是比谁能获得更高的收益率，而是比谁能一直活在市场上，只要不在关键时刻被淘汰，就能在今后的回合中继续行动。
正如激流勇退的交易大师熬鹰 @thankUcrypto，也在今天选择了退出一部分资金下牌桌，对比之前无限次切换多空直到亏完的 james @JamesWynnReal，高下立判。
不梭哈追求暴富，而是根据赔率控制仓位，哪怕失败了也留有东山再起的筹码。
时间是遍历性最强力的后盾，唯有活下来，才能遍历所有可能性，迎来反转。💗
#交易心态 #交易策略
https://x.com/thankUcrypto/status/1934821800757874850
🎰10 万人各带 1000 元参与抛硬币游戏，正面赚 80%，反面亏 50%，听起来稳赚不赔。
但经历 100 轮后他们的平均财富呈现指数型增长，但大多数人趋近破产，只剩下为数不多的几个幸存者。
❓为什么会这样——交易中的遍历性。
什么是 #遍历性？
遍历性是指在一个随机过程中，如果我们观察足够长的时间，其时间平均值可与同时平行的总体集合平均值相等。
但基于炒币中存在爆仓、归零这类不可逆事态，一旦踩中，便再也无法参与市场交易，那么就会丧失遍历性。因此，币圈中的群体平均并不等于个体命运，也存在幸存者偏差。
上述抛硬币游戏是典型的非遍历性陷阱。误把群体平均当成个体命运，总觉得再来一局就能翻盘，再开一单就能改命，再打一把就能上王者.
下面通过一场交易竞赛，帮助大家更好理解。
🆚交易竞赛规则如下
初始本金：10 万元
目标：稳定将本金上升到 100 万元
📑要求
> 每次交易必须全仓 all in
> 持有 1 天后卖出
> 一旦资金归零即出局
🪙标的
> Meme代币：单日收益率在 0% 到10000% 之间均匀分布，但有 1% 的概率归零。
> BTC：单日收益率固定为年化 20% ，按 365 天计算，单日收益率约为 0.05479%
🤔提问：请问你应该选择哪个标的，才能稳定将本金上升到 100 万元？
有人寄希望于连续踩中几波优质 Meme 实现自由，但大多数人都无法遍历 Meme，本金有限，输几次就彻底出局了。
我把这个问题丢给 Grok，给出的结论是 $BTC 是稳定达到 100 万元的更优选择，因为重复地操作 Meme 会导致长期收益率迅速下降。
你选对了吗？
别出局，但也别旁观。
#凯利公式 给出最优下注比例，避免了过度下注后遭遇极端行情被迫永远离场的情况发生，也规避了下注过少导致的增长缓慢，找到那个既能长期赚最多，又能活得下去的平衡点。
假设你看好的某代币胜率 60% ，赔率 2:1 ，凯利公式会告诉你只下注本金的 20% ，而不是梭哈。这样即使失败，你仍有翻盘的筹码！
人们的交易策略中不可避免地参杂着不理性因素，沉没成本、损失厌恶、过度自省等都可能让你在归零的边缘孤注一掷，一旦失败，整局游戏便宣告结束。
James 和凉席的结局就是很好反面教材。
🤡https://x.com/JamesWynnReal/status/1930816065145078117
在市场中摸爬滚打 5 年之久，我愈发认为——长期成功的秘诀是学会把控下注的比例。
交易并不是比谁能获得更高的收益率，而是比谁能一直活在市场上，只要不在关键时刻被淘汰，就能在今后的回合中继续行动。
正如激流勇退的交易大师熬鹰 @thankUcrypto，也在今天选择了退出一部分资金下牌桌，对比之前无限次切换多空直到亏完的 james @JamesWynnReal，高下立判。
不梭哈追求暴富，而是根据赔率控制仓位，哪怕失败了也留有东山再起的筹码。
时间是遍历性最强力的后盾，唯有活下来，才能遍历所有可能性，迎来反转。💗
#交易心态 #交易策略
https://x.com/thankUcrypto/status/1934821800757874850
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People may still not earn money beyond their cognition. Having dinner with neighbors on the weekend, she mentioned that she previously spent over ten thousand to buy some labubu, and now it’s worth twenty or thirty thousand. Friends urged her to sell it since it has appreciated so much, but she said, why sell? The initial purchase was just for fun, bringing emotional value.
I am thinking that investors who cannot experience this emotional value wouldn’t have chosen to invest in labubu in the first place. Those who can experience this emotional value actually don’t know how much it will ultimately rise to or how much it is worth.
This emotional value cannot be quantified; how long can it last, and to what valuation will it reach? Who knows?
#BubbleMart #LABUBU
I am thinking that investors who cannot experience this emotional value wouldn’t have chosen to invest in labubu in the first place. Those who can experience this emotional value actually don’t know how much it will ultimately rise to or how much it is worth.
This emotional value cannot be quantified; how long can it last, and to what valuation will it reach? Who knows?
#BubbleMart #LABUBU
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激动人心的“高原徒步+数码体验之旅”小记！ 今天大OK终于找到成都集团组织了 大家临时组了一波“高原局” 把平时常在推上活跃 令我仰望的顶流KOL们 全拖出来徒步川西了 看看都有哪些？
@yayabinance
@FLS_OTC
@qklxsqf
@bishengkegs
@doushi0503
@Dp520888
@CindyCreation
@LOYALLUYAO
@0xLige
@Evans666666
@CryptoNataNata
@moonkimbinance
平日里看大家在推上 谈笑风生、激扬文字 今天线下感受一番 老师们都还真有点有趣的反差感呢！ 粉丝专属任务开启！ → 最想听哪位老师的旅途趣事？ 或想问的问题？评论区甩过来！ 本OK扛着相机追着老师跑，帮你们挖独家答案！ 加码福利！抽奖！ 揪 5位 小伙伴平分 50 USDT！ 好啦，先出发！ 目标：丁真的家乡，顺道寻找一下传说中的 ... 蛇妖~ #BNB #Giveaway #抽奖 #成都徒步团 #Binance
@yayabinance
@FLS_OTC
@qklxsqf
@bishengkegs
@doushi0503
@Dp520888
@CindyCreation
@LOYALLUYAO
@0xLige
@Evans666666
@CryptoNataNata
@moonkimbinance
平日里看大家在推上 谈笑风生、激扬文字 今天线下感受一番 老师们都还真有点有趣的反差感呢！ 粉丝专属任务开启！ → 最想听哪位老师的旅途趣事？ 或想问的问题？评论区甩过来！ 本OK扛着相机追着老师跑，帮你们挖独家答案！ 加码福利！抽奖！ 揪 5位 小伙伴平分 50 USDT！ 好啦，先出发！ 目标：丁真的家乡，顺道寻找一下传说中的 ... 蛇妖~ #BNB #Giveaway #抽奖 #成都徒步团 #Binance
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Yesterday, a friend from a private equity firm asked me: I want to buy a car, an SUV, what can you recommend?
I thought for a moment and said, for a single woman, and in the private equity circle where image matters, isn't the Porsche Macan tailored just for you?
To my surprise, she asked again: What do you think of the Xiaomi YU7?
I felt a jolt in my heart; you clearly have already made up your mind and are seeking my validation, right?
However, I couldn't help but feel amazed that people like her, who were once the core customers for Porsche, are now turning to Xiaomi's embrace.
In the first quarter of this year, Porsche's global delivery volume fell by 8%, and the Chinese market saw a shocking drop of 42%. Last year, dealers even refused to "pressure stock." Now, the outlook is not optimistic; reports indicate that the Cayenne and Panamera are being sold at a 30% discount. In the Shenzhen area, a fully equipped Cayenne priced at 1.15 million yuan can be picked up for 750,000 yuan, equivalent to a 65% discount.
How to describe it? Each generation has its luxury cars, and the Xiaomi YU7 has sent the Cayenne to a retirement home.
#小米
I thought for a moment and said, for a single woman, and in the private equity circle where image matters, isn't the Porsche Macan tailored just for you?
To my surprise, she asked again: What do you think of the Xiaomi YU7?
I felt a jolt in my heart; you clearly have already made up your mind and are seeking my validation, right?
However, I couldn't help but feel amazed that people like her, who were once the core customers for Porsche, are now turning to Xiaomi's embrace.
In the first quarter of this year, Porsche's global delivery volume fell by 8%, and the Chinese market saw a shocking drop of 42%. Last year, dealers even refused to "pressure stock." Now, the outlook is not optimistic; reports indicate that the Cayenne and Panamera are being sold at a 30% discount. In the Shenzhen area, a fully equipped Cayenne priced at 1.15 million yuan can be picked up for 750,000 yuan, equivalent to a 65% discount.
How to describe it? Each generation has its luxury cars, and the Xiaomi YU7 has sent the Cayenne to a retirement home.
#小米
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So intense, the first stock of stablecoins #Circle
Surged 25% close to the previous high!
When everyone sees that breaking the new high is just a thin layer of paper, FOMO will ignite the imagination. The stock price will either return to $30-50 or soar to a market value of 50 billion to 100 billion. Generally, after the listing of a new industry leader in the US stock market, under continuous positive news and the subsequent active IPOs in the industry, there will be stunning performances.
Just to add... if it doesn't break the previous high, it has to go down.
Thinking about shorting!
#btc
Surged 25% close to the previous high!
When everyone sees that breaking the new high is just a thin layer of paper, FOMO will ignite the imagination. The stock price will either return to $30-50 or soar to a market value of 50 billion to 100 billion. Generally, after the listing of a new industry leader in the US stock market, under continuous positive news and the subsequent active IPOs in the industry, there will be stunning performances.
Just to add... if it doesn't break the previous high, it has to go down.
Thinking about shorting!
#btc
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🔥Breaking News, Tencent is acquiring MapleStory! Will $NXPC soar?
Teachers, Tencent @TencentGlobal is about to acquire the developer of MapleStory @MaplestoryU. It feels like a big positive in the short term, looking at $NXPC to 2u!
Three main reasons:
Airdrop chips have been fully digested.
Of the initial circulation of 16.9% (169 million coins), about 3% flowed into the market through airdrops to BNB holders, Alpha point rewards, etc. Short-term speculators have completed their sell-off in the early listing period (from May 15 to early June). The current price of $1.33 has retraced 66% from its peak of $3.98, indicating that the market has digested the first round of speculation.
High long-term lock-up ratio.
The lock-up design for team and advisor tokens (approximately 110 million coins in total) is set to release only a very small proportion by 2025 (unlocked quarterly over 9-36 months), and core developers and ecosystem builders are more inclined to hold long-term to gain governance rights premium. Additionally, 80% of contribution rewards need to be gradually unlocked through participation in ecosystem activities, further reducing circulation pressure.
Market sentiment reversal.
After a 3-year bear market in the GameFi sector, NXPC, with its mature IP foundation (250 million player base) and sustainable economic model, has become the preferred target for capital allocation in the 'chain game recovery'.
Combining technical and fundamental analysis, NXPC has entered a value recovery phase, and buying now is really cheap enough.
#nxpc
Teachers, Tencent @TencentGlobal is about to acquire the developer of MapleStory @MaplestoryU. It feels like a big positive in the short term, looking at $NXPC to 2u!
Three main reasons:
Airdrop chips have been fully digested.
Of the initial circulation of 16.9% (169 million coins), about 3% flowed into the market through airdrops to BNB holders, Alpha point rewards, etc. Short-term speculators have completed their sell-off in the early listing period (from May 15 to early June). The current price of $1.33 has retraced 66% from its peak of $3.98, indicating that the market has digested the first round of speculation.
High long-term lock-up ratio.
The lock-up design for team and advisor tokens (approximately 110 million coins in total) is set to release only a very small proportion by 2025 (unlocked quarterly over 9-36 months), and core developers and ecosystem builders are more inclined to hold long-term to gain governance rights premium. Additionally, 80% of contribution rewards need to be gradually unlocked through participation in ecosystem activities, further reducing circulation pressure.
Market sentiment reversal.
After a 3-year bear market in the GameFi sector, NXPC, with its mature IP foundation (250 million player base) and sustainable economic model, has become the preferred target for capital allocation in the 'chain game recovery'.
Combining technical and fundamental analysis, NXPC has entered a value recovery phase, and buying now is really cheap enough.
#nxpc
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In the crypto world, one must eventually pay the price
Recently, X officially froze multiple accounts related to the crypto sphere, including Sha Po Lang @Wolfy_XBT, Wang Xiao Er @brc20niubi, Wizard @0xCryptoWizard, gake @Ga__ke, GMGN official account @gmgnai, GMGN founder account @haze0x, etc. The specific reasons are unknown.
Yesterday, the official X account of ElizaOS @elizaOS and its founder Shaw's account @shawmakesmagic were both frozen, and the TRUMP wallet's official associated X account was also temporarily frozen before being unblocked. The current reason for the freeze is unknown.
Big OK's preliminary judgment:
Foreigners are collectively reporting and banning these individuals out of hatred for their use of insider wallets to ambush and then use large accounts to inflate prices and sell off. This is not just targeting Chinese individuals; foreigners are now collectively liquidating KOLs who engage in low-price ambush and high-price dumping, regardless of ethnicity.
#Solana #GMGN #Pumpfun
Recently, X officially froze multiple accounts related to the crypto sphere, including Sha Po Lang @Wolfy_XBT, Wang Xiao Er @brc20niubi, Wizard @0xCryptoWizard, gake @Ga__ke, GMGN official account @gmgnai, GMGN founder account @haze0x, etc. The specific reasons are unknown.
Yesterday, the official X account of ElizaOS @elizaOS and its founder Shaw's account @shawmakesmagic were both frozen, and the TRUMP wallet's official associated X account was also temporarily frozen before being unblocked. The current reason for the freeze is unknown.
Big OK's preliminary judgment:
Foreigners are collectively reporting and banning these individuals out of hatred for their use of insider wallets to ambush and then use large accounts to inflate prices and sell off. This is not just targeting Chinese individuals; foreigners are now collectively liquidating KOLs who engage in low-price ambush and high-price dumping, regardless of ethnicity.
#Solana #GMGN #Pumpfun
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Why is it not very useful to look at Smart Money when chasing Memes, but you must look at the addresses of Stupid Money that are losing money? The addresses that are making money are all the same, while the addresses that are losing money are all different. My point is that looking at the opening records of profitable addresses is often useless because they are all conspiracy groups, all new addresses, and market manipulation, which have no reference significance. @haze0x @gmgnai ave can only see how much profit the profitable addresses have made, but why can't we see the losing addresses and how much they lost?
I suggest that @haze0x or other developers of Meme dog-fighting tools can add this Stupid Money indicator. This is similar to the logic of playing Texas Hold'em; if you've been playing at the table for half an hour and still don't know who the fish is, then you are that fish!
(The above strategy is for reference only; the effectiveness varies for different targets, and extensive testing is recommended.)
#Gmgn #Ave #Meme
I suggest that @haze0x or other developers of Meme dog-fighting tools can add this Stupid Money indicator. This is similar to the logic of playing Texas Hold'em; if you've been playing at the table for half an hour and still don't know who the fish is, then you are that fish!
(The above strategy is for reference only; the effectiveness varies for different targets, and extensive testing is recommended.)
#Gmgn #Ave #Meme
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The Current Situation of Group Friends After the Rush of Inscriptions Fades
⬇️
The inscriptions purchased with $BTC have gone to zero
The #NodeMonkey NFT bought with $BTC has no liquidity now
The $BTC gas that was ruthlessly pulled down went into the miners' pockets
Subsequently, Bitcoin broke through $110,000
Only the balance in the $BTC wallet remains, and it's becoming more valuable
Goodness, and then it was stolen by the #Alby wallet......
It is recommended that victims send an email to appeal for recovery
With the rush gone, timely withdrawal of funds is the most important thing.
⬇️
The inscriptions purchased with $BTC have gone to zero
The #NodeMonkey NFT bought with $BTC has no liquidity now
The $BTC gas that was ruthlessly pulled down went into the miners' pockets
Subsequently, Bitcoin broke through $110,000
Only the balance in the $BTC wallet remains, and it's becoming more valuable
Goodness, and then it was stolen by the #Alby wallet......
It is recommended that victims send an email to appeal for recovery
With the rush gone, timely withdrawal of funds is the most important thing.
See original
Accumulation of Initial Capital
As Ice Frog said, the elimination round of Binance alpha has already begun, and those without 1wu in their accounts basically shouldn't play. But 1wu is not a small amount for small players either.
Back to the topic of #原始资本积累 aside from working off-exchange, how can novices in the crypto world accumulate initial capital? Old players might casually mention airdrops, memes, and new token launches.
But the airdrop blue ocean has ended, and Binance alpha is out of reach. How to play?
Let me share my views and new opportunities for novices to make money.
The wealth creation effect of the airdrop track is visibly diminishing.
Back to the topic of #原始资本积累 aside from working off-exchange, how can novices in the crypto world accumulate initial capital? Old players might casually mention airdrops, memes, and new token launches.
But the airdrop blue ocean has ended, and Binance alpha is out of reach. How to play?
Let me share my views and new opportunities for novices to make money.
The wealth creation effect of the airdrop track is visibly diminishing.
See original
How to value @HyperliquidX? Hype needs to rise to 100U!
How to value @HyperliquidX? Hype needs to rise to 100U!
(Retweet this tweet to enter a giveaway of 150 USDT)
Obviously! Easy proof! Clearly visible! Not hard to demonstrate!
Currently, Hyperliquid is far ahead of its peers in terms of users, profits, technology, etc., so many people have lost effectiveness in predicting Hype prices using relative valuation methods. We need to adopt a more effective model for valuation.
Everyone knows that the Hype token captures value very strongly. Simply put: the fees collected by Hyperliquid will be funneled into an aid fund, which will repurchase HYPE from the open market, thus reducing supply.
(Retweet this tweet to enter a giveaway of 150 USDT)
Obviously! Easy proof! Clearly visible! Not hard to demonstrate!
Currently, Hyperliquid is far ahead of its peers in terms of users, profits, technology, etc., so many people have lost effectiveness in predicting Hype prices using relative valuation methods. We need to adopt a more effective model for valuation.
Everyone knows that the Hype token captures value very strongly. Simply put: the fees collected by Hyperliquid will be funneled into an aid fund, which will repurchase HYPE from the open market, thus reducing supply.
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