I. Overall Market Environment
Impact of Macroeconomic Events
Current Market Situation
Price: Currently reported at 118,300, with an intraday fluctuation range of 117,450–$118,450, up 0.21% in 24 hours. Key Indicators: Resistance Levels: 119,500 (psychological barrier), 120,000 (round number), $121,000 (previous high).
Support Levels: 117,900 (EMA120), 117,650 (previous low), $116,500 (middle track support). Technical Signal: The contraction of the Bollinger Bands indicates an imminent change; MACD momentum is bearish; CME futures gap is located at $118,475, historical patterns may drive price to fill the gap.
Operational Suggestions
Short-term Strategy:
Short Position: Try shorting lightly on a rebound to 118,300–118,600, with a stop loss at 119,200 and a target of 117,200–116,800 (look for 116,000 if broken).
Long Position: If it stabilizes on a pullback to 117,900–118,000, a long position can be laid out, with a stop loss at 117,500 and a target of 119,000–$119,500. Medium to long-term strategy: If it holds above 120,000, a new round of increases will begin; if it loses 117,650, it may pull back deeply to 116,500–115,000. Trump plans to promote the inclusion of crypto assets in the US pension and mortgage system, provoking opposition from Democrats. On July 29, 2025, 11:06 AM, the Trump administration plans to further integrate crypto assets into the US economy, including incorporating Bitcoin and other digital assets into 401(k) retirement accounts and mortgage asset evaluations. The Federal Housing Finance Agency has asked Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to consider borrowers' crypto assets as collateral, provoking opposition from Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren and others, who worry that this move may undermine financial system stability. The White House will also release a major crypto asset strategic report this Wednesday and may sign an executive order to promote more diversified pension investments, including cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the market is watching whether this report involves 'Bitcoin strategic reserves' and other federal reserve mechanisms. Earlier this month, Trump completed stablecoin regulatory legislation through the 'GENIUS Act', the House has passed related market structure legislation, and the Senate is drafting a version, expecting to receive industry feedback by August 5. Despite Congress entering recess, the Trump administration still lists crypto issues as one of the core agendas for the second half of this year. III. Ethereum (ETH) Technical Analysis and Strategy Current Market Situation Price: Currently reported at 3,780, intraday high of 3,821, low of $3,731, down 0.51% in 24 hours.
Key Indicators:
Resistance Levels: 3,850 (previous high), 3,900 (psychological barrier), $3,950 (strong resistance). Support Levels: 3,730 (EMA7), 3,675 (EMA30), $3,640 (Fibonacci 38.2%).
Technical Signal: Continuous long upper shadows on the daily chart + MACD bearish crossover at a high level, with a short-term double top pattern emerging; 4-hour EMA15 (3,760) has been lost, and if it falls below 3,735 (Bollinger middle line), it may accelerate the pullback.
Operational Suggestions
Short-term Strategy:
Short Position: Try shorting on a rebound to the 3,795–3,850 range, with a stop loss at 3,880 and a target of 3,730–3,700 (look for 3,650 if broken).
Long Position: Enter on a pullback to the 3,650–3,700 support zone, with a stop loss at 3,600 and a target of 3,780–$3,820. Medium to long-term strategy: Pay attention to the progress of ETH spot ETF approvals (if passed, it could trigger a multi-billion dollar influx); Standard Chartered is bullish to $8,000 (year-end target).
IV. News and Risk Warnings
Positive Factors
Ethereum Ecosystem: On-chain NFT weekly sales exceeded $157 million (led by CryptoPunks), and the Layer2 sector's activity has increased (e.g., Optimism rose 10.4%). Regulatory Expectations: Hong Kong's HashKey exchange is promoting compliance, and the increase in institutional adoption may support a long-term bull market. Risk Warning: Increased Volatility: Bitcoin's open contracts reached $44.5 billion (a historical high), which could easily trigger liquidation.
V. Comprehensive Operational Thoughts
The Ethereum tenth anniversary live stream will be held on July 30, and the torch commemorative NFT minting will be open.
The Ethereum Foundation announced that the tenth anniversary live stream will take place on July 30 at 14:30 UTC, with global celebrations. The Ethereum torch commemorative NFT will be available for free minting within 24 hours after the event ends.
Previously reported that Ethereum launched 'The Torch' NFT to pay tribute to those who shaped its development and values in the first decade, and will aid in Ethereum's future construction. In the 10 days leading up to Ethereum's tenth anniversary, this Torch NFT will symbolically be passed between wallets. On July 30, the Torch NFT will be destroyed to commemorate Ethereum's tenth anniversary. On that day, everyone can mint a commemorative NFT.
Still the same saying, bulls have their strategies, and bears have their ways.
Will not cause fans to be liquidated, nor will it blindly open positions.
All are about seeking victory steadily, doing things step by step; those who want to profit should keep up.
SUI TURMP BONK PEPE OM SOL PNUT NEIRO
