The current cryptocurrency market is still in the late stage of a bull market, overall showing a fluctuating upward trend. The rhythm of 'three steps forward, one step back' is relatively healthy, and there hasn't been a crazy market at the peak yet. Yesterday, when Bitcoin reached $118,000, I symbolically sold a small portion. This does not mean I think the market has peaked, but rather I want to remind myself through action that we have entered the exit phase for Bitcoin, adhering to the principle of 'only sell, do not buy'—breaking the psychological inertia of holding back during the bull market, while also not expecting to hold all chips waiting to sell at the highest point, but instead choosing to exit in batches and withdraw gradually.
Next, there are still many favorable factors supporting the cryptocurrency market, and the market is likely to continue for a while. However, historical experience shows that the market often experiences a sudden drop after a series of major favorable factors are realized or are in the process of being realized. When everyone is almost fully invested, frantically holding back sales and increasing investments, a potential black swan can strike suddenly, leading to a sharp decline from high levels. Essentially, this is because the bubble in the late stage of the bull market is difficult to sustain, and any slight negative news may trigger sensitive investors to flee, leading to a stampede and triggering a larger-scale secondary flight and stampede, ultimately evolving into a comprehensive escape tide. This process is similar to nuclear fission; once the critical conditions are met and triggered, it is difficult for traders to retreat unscathed under the impact. Therefore, it is better to sell in batches in advance. Even if one finishes selling slightly early and watches from the sidelines, it is better than being forced to make drastic cuts during a stampede.
Although the current market is regulated, it appears slightly dull; waiting often tests patience. It might be worthwhile to predict potential black swans in this round of the bull market, which could trigger a market reversal (excluding situations marked with a probability exceeding 50%, the remaining probabilities are merely qualitative descriptions of likelihood):
After the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates to a certain point, due to reasons such as rising inflation, there is a 50% chance of interrupting rate cuts or even restarting rate hikes;
The US stock market, which is highly correlated with Bitcoin, has seen weekly and monthly corrections with a drop of over 20% lasting more than three months, with a probability exceeding 50%;
A medium to large financial crisis erupts in Europe and the United States, causing liquidity strain and a significant stock market drop, with a probability exceeding 30%;
A major geopolitical variable similar to the Russia-Ukraine conflict occurs, impacting global financial markets, with a probability of 10%;
China will introduce policy documents to crack down on cryptocurrencies, with a probability of 70%. This judgment stems from the fact that during each round of bull market peaks, similar policy crackdowns such as '94' and '519' often occur.
Regardless of when or in what form a black swan appears, the following suggestions are made for the cryptocurrency market in 2025:
1. From now on, closely monitor indicators and various signals that indicate the market is peaking;
2. Before the end of 2025, Bitcoin should be 'sold more as it rises', without blindly trying to catch the bottom;
3. Even if the portion sold does not reach the highest point, do not re-enter the market;
4. Quickly reduce leverage (if any), first sell Bitcoin in batches before altcoins;
5. If a black swan event occurs at the end of the bull market causing a 'fission' in the market and there is no time or reluctance to clear out, it is essential to convert all altcoins to Bitcoin at the first opportunity to avoid risk.
