This week's BTC was once again taught a lesson by the 'ancient giant whale'.
The market was suddenly hit by a whale sell-off during the third wave of rising, directly breaching the rising channel since the start of the third wave, not only clearing the bullish positions below but also filling the CME gap, damaging the daily structure—structurally, #BTC has now entered a stage of oscillation and adjustment. If it can't break a new high next week, be prepared for a transition into weekly oscillation.
However, this isn't entirely a bad thing: explosion, washing, and clearance are precisely necessary steps before the main upward wave.
In contrast, this wave of #Ethereum has indeed been strong. When BTC pulled back, ETH's maximum drawdown was 9.3%, but the overall trend didn't break, firmly holding at 3500.
As expected in last week's review—'ETH won't easily break the level, and the target for the third wave is at least 4100'. I myself started adding around 3500, increasing PEPE, SUI, and RAY, directly planting at the 3500 mark, betting on a 'peak rally'.
Trading volume has been halved: is the rebound just an illusion?
Although the index hasn't dropped much, the exchange data isn't very optimistic:
BTC spot trading volume has dropped by 73%
ETH spot trading volume has dropped by 50%
#HYPE has dropped by 78%
Trading volume is the fuel for the upward trend; this kind of volume without an increase indicates that there will likely be fluctuations ahead. Only SUI's trading volume has been rising continuously; I don't know who's sweeping it, but it's quite impressive.
This week's altcoin performance: clear differentiation in strength and weakness.
The most comfortable this week is#sui , bought at 3.55, rose to 3.81 for a 30% gain, and the remaining bottom position continues to hold, waiting for an opportunity to exchange for SUI.
To be honest, I am a bit disappointed; this wave was too gentle, and structurally it didn't even break through the neck level of 1632. Maybe everyone has been too optimistic for too long, and the positions are too heavy to pull. So just let it be; the market isn't limited to just one coin, it's fluid, and just keep the right mindset.
The remaining #SOL and #RAY are long-term holdings and haven't been touched.
Is the fourth wave coming? Don't get attached before the oscillation!
Currently, 3860 is seen as the peak of the third wave. If it can't quickly break through 4100, it is highly likely to enter the fourth wave of oscillation.
Many altcoins have already entered adjustments in advance, generally showing a decline of 15-20%. This round of BTC collapse had already seen nearly 1 billion MEI explode before, and many retail investors were frantically betting at the end of the third wave, resulting in total annihilation at the slightest pullback.
After this wave, it actually leaves space for the next round of the market.
If your position is heavy: it's recommended to reduce holdings around 120,000 for BTC and near the previous high for ETH to prevent being shaken out; wait for confirmation to chase higher, then you have the initiative.
If your position is light or half: stay flexible, wait for low-position opportunities, and avoid chasing highs and cutting losses.
Don't forget, August is coming.
August will be a critical time window: the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, and Powell's stance on rate cuts and tariffs will directly affect market direction.
In addition, there are tariff negotiations, Trump's statements, and 200 tariff letters expiring... This week might be the 'most thrilling week of the year', which could even affect trends for the next few months. Think clearly!
Summary:
The market has entered a critical turning point. The third wave peaks, the fourth wave oscillates, and significant events in August intertwine; this is the most chaotic time in the market, and also the easiest time to seize opportunities.
Keep an eye on ETH, maintain your rhythm, don't stay up waiting, act when the signal moves.
That's it for the article! If you're feeling lost in the crypto world, consider planning and harvesting with me!
