#FOMC‬⁩ Decision & Powell's Outlook: July 30, 2025 — [BREAKDOWN]

The FOMC meeting on July 29-30, will decide the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs across the economy. As of July, the current rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, unchanged since December 2024. Market data from CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows a 95% chance the FOMC will keep rates steady on July 30, with a 58% chance of a 0.25% cut in September. The decision will be announced at 2:00 PM ET on July 30.

No economic projections or "dot plot" updates are expected, so focus will be on the FOMC's statement. Recent FOMC minutes and comments from Fed officials, like New York Fed President John Williams, suggest a cautious approach due to tariff-related inflation risks and a cooling labor market.

Inflation is projected at 2.8% for 2025, up from 2.5% in December 2024, partly due to tariffs, while economic growth is forecast at 1.7%, down from 2.1%. Some FOMC members, like Governor Christopher Waller, may push for a rate cut, potentially dissenting, which would be notable as dissents are rare. A steady rate could keep borrowing costs high, with 30-year mortgage rates around 7% and credit card rates over 20%.

If the statement hints at future cuts, markets might rally; if it emphasizes inflation concerns, the dollar could strengthen.

On July 30 at 2:30 PM ET, Jerome Powell will hold a press conference to discuss the FOMC’s rate decision. He’ll likely emphasize a data-dependent approach, avoiding firm rate cut commitments. Powell has called tariff-driven inflation “transitory,” as noted on March 19, and may address new tariffs starting August 1 or political pressure to cut rates, which he’s dismissed, per May 7, remarks. He might mention the Fed’s shift to a simpler inflation framework.

A cautious tone could keep markets volatile; hints of September cuts might boost stocks and weaken the dollar.