ETC plummeted 5.4% overnight, but is there a hidden 'golden pit'? Can the huge trading zone at $24.6 become the ignition point for a bullish comeback!
【Quick Overview】
After a 8.75% reduction in contracts over 24 hours, ETC fell to $22.97, just below the two-week POC ($24.66) at 1×ATR, indicating a weakening of short-term bearish momentum; if a rebound occurs in the high trading volume zone of $22.6~$22.8 with increased buying volume, one can take a small long position, with a stop loss at $21.9, targeting $24.2, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 2.3; if it breaks down below $21.9 with increased volume, the bullish structure will fail, and one should consider going short.
【Key Interval Structure】
1. Value Anchor: POC = $24.66 (6.17 million transactions), serving as the mid-term bull-bear watershed.
2. High Volume Buffer:
• HVN1 $22.86~$22.92 (36 million transactions, Up/Down ≈ 1.2) → Short-term support, easy to rebound on pullback.
• HVN2 $23.22~$23.34 (49 million transactions, Up/Down ≈ 1.6) → First target for rebound.
3. Low Volume Gap:
• LVN $25.25~$25.61 (transactions plummeted to 1.1 million) → If the price returns to this zone, it will quickly pass through, which can be used as a breakout long or pullback short zone.
4. 70% Trading Volume Coverage Zone: $22.86~$25.25; the current price of $22.97 is at the lower edge, not considered overbought in the short term, with potential for rebound.
【Momentum Verification】
• The latest Up Volume in the $22.86~$22.92 range is 55%, slightly above the balance, indicating buyers are starting to test.
• The 4-hour trading volume has shrunk by 23% compared to yesterday, weakening the bearish momentum; if it breaks above $23.34 with increased volume, it will confirm the return of bulls.
【Auxiliary Indicators】
• 1h Bollinger Bands: $22.97 is at the middle band 55%, with narrowing bandwidth, indicating a directional choice is imminent.
• MA200: $22.74, the price is close to it, and the bullish structure has not been damaged.
• Contract Holdings: 24h down 8.75%, but the funding rate remains slightly positive, indicating that short-term shorts are covering, not panic selling.
【Market Cycle】
The medium-term is still in the 'high-level consolidation' phase: after the rally in early July, a box was formed from July 10 to 24 at $22.8~$26.2, currently retreating to the lower edge of the box, with no trend reversal confirmed.
【Trading Strategy】
Aggressive: Long at $22.80±0.05, stop loss at $21.90 (recent HVN lower edge -0.5ATR), first target $24.20 (HVN2), risk-reward ratio 2.3.
Conservative: Wait for a 15m breakout with increased volume above $23.34, then enter on a pullback that does not break $23.00, stop loss at $22.80, target $25.00 (upper edge of LVN), risk-reward ratio 2.8.
Cautious: If it breaks below $21.90 and recovery seems hopeless, consider going short, targeting $20.80 (lower liquidity gathering area), stop loss at $22.30.
$ETC
