Bitcoin continues to be the asset with the best performance denominated in Fiat since 2009, despite wars, tariffs, and geopolitical dissonances. Its pace follows a precise variable, the growth of credit in the financial system.
What is the “signature of time” that moves Bitcoin?
When we observe Bitcoin, we don’t just see charts, but a wave of human emotions that manifests in price movements. But what is the beat to which we should really pay attention? According to Arthur Hayes, the “signature of time” in financial markets – that element that truly sets the pace – is not given by the headlines, but by the expansion of the Fiat supply (credit). Like house music, which finds rhythm thanks to the kick drum, cryptos also move to the time imposed by the creation of money.
The key philosophy of Hayes is clear: understanding the expansion of Fiat credit is the basis for every profit. For Bitcoin, a “fixed supply asset”, growth is natural when Fiat money is created in large quantities. In other words, in the post-2009 decade, the increasing pace of money printing has made Bitcoin almost “infallible” compared to traditional currencies.
Do wars and tariffs really matter for the crypto markets?
Many fear that tariffs and wars could disrupt the markets. But, as in music, certain instruments are just “background noise.” The USA, led by Trump, cannot afford total trade clashes with China because these two superpowers are bound by vital necessities (for example, the supply of rare earths, essential for American weapons). Therefore, geopolitical events create noise, but do not alter the rhythm of credit – which for Hayes remains the true driver of Bitcoin.
What does the “fatal duet” USA-China indicate about the financial future?
The United States and China dance a dangerous choreography, where each avoids extreme moves that could cause the system to collapse. The production of weapons, the trade of critical materials, and military threats are “tools” that, combined, maintain a precarious balance. As long as credit continues to flow (the kick drum doesn’t stop), the system holds – with enormous effects on asset classes like crypto.
Why are the USA focusing on an aggressive industrial policy?
We get to the heart of the matter: the United States is adopting state capitalism, or economic fascism, to support military supremacy and the growth of industrial giants. After the clear evidence (the Israel-Iran war, which lasted 12 days because Israel ran out of US missiles), Trump’s strategy involves massive credit policies and public investments in critical industries. The result? More government demand for weapons, more bank loans, and, above all, more inflation – pure fuel for Bitcoin and crypto.
How does credit policy create crypto bubbles?
The American strategy, defined by Hayes as “QE 4 Poor People,” stimulates the system with a cascade of credit that also flows into the digital sector. A concrete example is the agreement with MP Materials, clear proof of a policy that pumps currency not only into weapons but also into essential technological sectors (semiconductors, industrial metals, rare earths). This geyser of liquidity directly reflects on global assets like Bitcoin.
Stablecoin: what role do they play in the new financial equilibrium?
The expansion of capitalizzazione crypto also increases the demand for US government bonds, through stablecoins that invest in Treasury Bills. According to the hypothesis put forward in the source, by 2028 the total capitalization of crypto could reach 100 trillion dollars: in this case, up to 9 trillion would be invested in T-bills, supporting the colossal US debt.
What does this mean for investors?
With each cycle of credit expansion, new capital flows into the markets, leading to a crypto bubble reminiscent of what has already been seen with Chinese growth. Consequently, the purchasing power of traditional currencies erodes. To protect oneself and thrive means to deeply understand where the new liquidity is flowing.
Is it possible to predict the “next beat”? How to stay on time?
Staying in rhythm, both in dance and in financial markets, translates to listening to the “kick drum” of credit creation. Investors who understand when a new “wave” of Fiat money arrives on the market know when to take risks and when to protect themselves. Bitcoin, for now, rides this wave better than any other asset.
The financial markets remain a mirror of chaos and the strategies of the great powers, but the logic of credit and the ability to stay “on time” are the keys to interpreting the global symphony. Crypto bubble, expansive policy, strategic use of stablecoins: everything converges towards an exponential growth of digital assets. And while American debt reaches new records and monetary expansion continues to fuel the dance, knowing how to adapt one’s portfolio is a matter of financial survival.
The future depends on the ability to read the macroeconomic and geopolitical pulse before it becomes evident to most. The coming weeks could bring strong signals: watch the moves of credit, follow the community, and never lose the rhythm of the market music.
