Family! Hot news! The U.S. and old Europe (the EU) have clashed again, and the trade powder keg is thick with tension! Just exposed news: The EU has a big move up its sleeve, preparing a whopping 100 billion euros (about 117 billion U.S. dollars) as a 'no-deal' backup! Directly targeting the U.S. threat of imposing a 30% high tariff on EU goods!
In simple terms: If the big bosses from both sides can't reach an agreement before August 1, and the U.S. really dares to impose a 30% tax, the EU will immediately retaliate with a double whammy! Boeing's planes? American cars? Whiskey? All arranged with a 30% 'return gift'! This is no small matter; both sides are on a collision course worth hundreds of billions of euros, and the firepower is frightening! (Source: Jinshi Data, July 23, 19:01:22)
So what does this have to do with our crypto circle? What impact does it have on BTC and ETH? Airs will clarify for you:
Risk aversion sentiment is rising, and BTC and ETH may benefit!
At this level of economic friction, the big players are indeed anxious. Historical experience tells us that when geopolitical tensions rise and economic prospects are unclear (especially with the two largest global economies clashing), money in the market will seek safe places to hide, which is what is known as the rise of 'risk aversion sentiment'.
Gold: The traditional leader, it will definitely rise.
BTC and ETH: As globally recognized 'digital gold/silver' not controlled by any single country, their risk-averse properties are becoming increasingly solid! When everyone panics, more funds (especially smart money seeking diversified allocations) may flow into BTC and ETH, treating them as a safe haven in the crypto world. This is not just my opinion; in previous instances of geopolitical conflict and trade friction, Bitcoin and Ethereum showed some 'resistance' capabilities.
Global economic uncertainty is increasing, and overall risk appetite may be suppressed!
There are two sides to a coin. If the trade war escalates, it may slow down global economic growth (buying and selling things becomes more expensive and difficult). If the economy is not good, everyone's willingness to invest may become cautious. After all, if you're not even well-fed, who would take risks? Therefore, the sentiment in the overall risk market (including stock markets and the crypto circle) may be somewhat suppressed and become more volatile.
The key point is here! What will happen to BTC and ETH?
In the short term (especially during the escalation of conflicts): The possibility of benefiting from inflows of risk-averse funds is greater! Trade frictions at the hundred billion level directly impact market nerves, and this effect will be more pronounced in the short term. The market will instinctively look for 'safe assets', with BTC and ETH as the core of the crypto world being the most likely assets to absorb this demand. Therefore, during this period, we should focus on observing their capital inflow situation and price trends, which may perform 'steadily' or even 'stubbornly' compared to the broader environment.
In the medium term (depending on the duration and scope of the conflict): If the friction really becomes long-term and expands in scale, leading to a significant slowdown in the global economy, it wouldn't be good news for all risk assets, including BTC and ETH. After all, it's not easy to find shade under a big tree. But so far, it appears that the EU and the U.S. are still bargaining, leaving room for negotiation (the EU says they will only retaliate if the U.S. takes action), and we haven't reached a point of 'mutual destruction'. Therefore, there’s no need to panic excessively about long-term drawbacks at this stage.
Airs knocks on the blackboard:
The logic of risk aversion is now the main theme! The escalation of U.S.-EU trade frictions has genuinely increased global instability, short-term benefiting the risk-averse properties of digital currencies. BTC and ETH are the biggest potential beneficiaries.
Don't blindly chase highs and sell lows! Market sentiment will fluctuate more under the stimulation of news, and there may be volatile market movements with quick rises or falls in the short term. Staying calm and managing your positions well is key.
Keep a close eye on the progress of the negotiations! August 1 is a critical time point. If news of a softening in negotiations comes out later, risk aversion sentiment will cool down; if it continues to be deadlocked or tariffs are actually imposed, then the logic of risk aversion will become even stronger! I will continue to keep an eye on the subsequent developments for everyone.
To sum it up in one sentence: The U.S.-EU 'hundred billion tariffs' drama has begun, and in the short term, it is a potential 'positive stimulus' for BTC and ETH, mainly coming from the expected inflow of risk-averse funds! They may show stronger resilience amidst volatility. But brothers, be sure to view this rationally and pay attention to the development of the situation and the actual market reactions. This game has just begun, and the excitement continues! Follow Airs to understand the trends in the crypto circle!
I am Airs, guiding you through the fog of the crypto circle to seize hardcore opportunities! Follow me for continuous insights on crypto opportunities amidst the trade war storm; what you lack is not luck, but the top-notch team of Airs!
