Despite the growing calls in the market for "Bitcoin to soar to $200,000 this year", some analysts indicate that without a significant increase in buying volume, this dream may be hard to achieve.
Glassnode's chief analyst James Check believes that although industry insiders in the cryptocurrency space are optimistic about Bitcoin's future performance, with a "$200,000 target price" being loudly proclaimed, the current market trading volume may not support such a surge. He bluntly stated: "Without volume, how could it possibly rise?"
James Check pointed out a key point — assuming Bitcoin surges to $200,000 by the end of this year, it would mean the market cap nearly doubles, expanding from the current approximately $2.38 trillion to nearly $5 trillion. He emphasized:
Rising to $200,000 within 6 months and creating such a large gap is definitely an unusual leap.
James Check believes that theoretically "everything is possible", but from a technical and market structure perspective, "the chances of realization are very low". He stated:
Unless I see trading volume recover, unless I feel more confident, I certainly won't recklessly open leveraged positions. Unless I see the market stabilize, I probably won't take the risk.
Quantile Model Update
Bitcoin Price: ~$120K Risk Score (current quantile): 72%
120K is the new base pic.twitter.com/iJL1pNly96
— Sina 21st Capital (@Sina_21st) July 22, 2025
According to CoinGecko market pricing, as of the time of writing, Bitcoin's trading price is $118,422, which is still 68.8% below $200,000.
For James Check, reaching $200,000 is not something that can be accomplished overnight, but rather a series of difficult technical battles. Although Bitcoin broke through the $120,000 barrier on July 14, it still needs to steadily surpass multiple thresholds of $130,000, $140,000, and even above $150,000. He emphasized: "Going up is one thing; being able to stabilize is another."
James Check further warns that if Bitcoin rapidly rises without solid support, it may also quickly retract its gains.
However, James Check is not entirely bearish. He admits that most of his assets are allocated in Bitcoin, and in the long run, he believes that "it's not a fantasy for Bitcoin to stabilize at $200,000 in 5 years."
"Will Bitcoin surge to $200,000 this year? Glassnode analyst: No volume, no support, no show" This article was first published on (Blockcast).
