Xiaowan interprets today's Bitcoin (BTC) market outlook in simple terms for everyone
Core viewpoint
Short-term fluctuations are cautious; key news will drive directional choices, and beware of downside risks (neutral to bearish)
Dissecting the impact of news
【Heavy Bearish Warning】
20:30 Speech by Fed Chair Powell
Tonight is definitely the 'main event'! Powell's speech at the regulatory meeting will have the market frantically capturing clues about inflation, interest rates, and financial regulation. If he turns 'hawkish' (emphasizing stubborn inflation, delaying rate cuts, strengthening regulation), risk assets will collectively take a hit - Bitcoin and US stocks will be hard to escape selling pressure, and a strong dollar will drain liquidity from the crypto market, likely putting BTC under pressure and causing a sharp drop.
Next day 01:00 Speech by Fed Governor Bowman
Bowman is already the 'hawkish representative' of the Fed, and it's very likely he will continue to promote 'inflation isn't dead, high rates cannot be loosened', maintaining hawkish pressure and dousing cold water on the market.
[Neutral/Indirect Impact]
09:30 RBA minutes
Mainly affects the Australian dollar and Asia-Pacific sentiment, with little direct impact on BTC. If unexpectedly 'dovish' (hinting at easing), it may add some fuel to risk sentiment, but the effect is limited.
15:00 State Council Information Office press conference on foreign exchange
Focus on China's capital flows and exchange rate policies. If he mentions 'great pressure from capital outflow' or 'policy tightening', Bitcoin may get a slight boost as a 'substitute asset', but its influence is far less than that of the Fed.
17:15 Speech by Bank of England officials
Affects the British pound and European markets, with weak direct correlation to BTC. However, if a 'global tightening' signal is released, it will pour gasoline on the fire, reinforcing hawkish expectations for the Fed.
Next day: Crude oil inventory data + futures delivery
Indirectly influences risk appetite through inflation expectations and energy stocks. If inventory surges and oil prices drop, it may slightly ease the Fed's rate hike pressure, but the transmission chain is long, and the direct impact on BTC is far less than that of the Fed's speeches.
News summary
Today's core contradiction focuses on two speeches from the Fed (especially Powell)! The current market is already nervous from the 'long battle of high rates', and if Powell turns hawkish, it will ignite the trigger for BTC's decline. The overall environment is cautious/bearish, and before the speeches, the market is likely to 'wait and see', with strong risk-averse sentiment.
Xiaowan's practical suggestions
1. Keep a close eye on Powell at 20:30
This is today's 'ultimate exam question', the answer directly determines the rise or fall! The volatility will be suffocating, make sure to have the rescue plan ready!
2. Maintain a bearish mindset
Both technicals and market expectations hint at a 'downward trend'. As long as Powell mentions 'inflation isn't resolved', BTC will teach you what a crash means in no time.
3. A breakout requires a 'super bullish' signal
Want to break through the 119800 - 120000 range? Simply relying on a technical rebound won't work; it requires a 'dovish' signal from Powell or similar super bullish news, otherwise breaking through will be as hard as climbing to the sky.
Current situation analogy
Currently, BTC feels like a student waiting to be called on by the teacher, nervous beyond belief. The Fed (especially Powell) is that teacher, and his evaluation (speech) directly decides whether BTC is a 'small rise to pass' or a 'big drop for punishment'. The technicals are already shaky, and with the added hawkish risk, the probability of 'punishment drop' is higher! Be sure to fasten your seatbelt, keep a close watch on key speeches and support levels!
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