US stocks performed strongly on Monday, with the Nasdaq index rising 0.7% intraday and the S&P 500 index rising 0.5%, both reaching new highs; gold rose 1.4% and the US dollar index fell 0.7% to 97.7 points.
Regarding monetary policy, Trump called for interest rate cuts, believing that interest rates should be reduced to 1%, and also said that the Fed needs to bear equal responsibility in many aspects. Fed Governor Waller said that waiting another six weeks for an interest rate cut may be okay, but there is no reason to continue delaying.
In terms of regulation, Trump officially signed the (GENIUS Act) (i.e., the (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation Act for American Stablecoins)) in the White House, which is the first federal legislation on cryptocurrency regulation to take effect in the United States. The bill puts forward stricter regulatory requirements for stablecoins: issuers need to use US dollars and short-term treasury bonds and other liquid assets to support a 1:1 reserve, and the composition of the reserve must be disclosed monthly. On the other hand, Hong Kong's (Stablecoin Ordinance) will take effect on August 1, and dozens of companies have expressed their intention to apply for or participate in stablecoin business. Hong Pi-cheng, head of the Hong Kong Financial Development Bureau, pointed out that stablecoins should not be hyped, asset market digitization is a long-term direction, stablecoins must play a stabilizing role, and cannot be short-sighted. Hong Kong is currently in a leading position in the development of this field.
Regarding institutional dynamics, BlackRock has submitted an application to the US SEC for an ETH spot ETF with staking features, sparking discussions on the SEC's batch approval process. Previously, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, and other institutions have submitted similar applications. Analysts expect the SEC to give a unified ruling as early as the fourth quarter of this year.
Regarding asset changes, the UK Home Office plans to sell a batch of cryptocurrencies, the specific total amount of which is not clear. The tender announcement shows that asset seizure to the end of the legal process takes an average of less than 1 year, and complex cases may take 3 to 4 years. Also, the UK-listed company Vaultz Capital increased its holdings of 20 BTC, with total holdings of 70 BTC; the European-listed company The Blockchain Group increased its holdings of 22 BTC, with total holdings of 1955 BTC.
In terms of market analysis, Min Jung, an analyst at Presto Research, believes that BTC is hovering near historical highs, supported by continued institutional demand. ETH spot ETFs have recently seen record inflows, and the market shows early signs of an altcoin season, such as BTC price stability and a decline in BTC dominance when ETH rises. Glassnode stated that almost all major BTC address size groups have re-entered accumulation mode, and even whales holding over 10,000 BTC have returned to the level of December 2024, which indicates that the market generally has confidence in the current upward trend. Matrixport said that ETH is resilient due to multiple important factors, has a growing influence in Asia, and the significant recovery of DeFi also provides impetus for ETH to rise.
In terms of capital flows, US BTC spot ETFs saw inflows of $2.386 billion last week, and US ETH spot ETFs saw inflows of $2.1824 billion. The ETF Store President Nate Geraci mentioned that BlackRock's IBIT ETF ranked first in inflows among all 4,300+ ETFs last week, and ETH ETF ETHA ranked fifth.
There is a clear change in the current market: the altcoin season index has risen to 52, meaning that in the past 90 days, about 52 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have risen more than BTC. BTC's market share has fallen by 5.66% in the past week to 60.95%; the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has risen by 4.35%, while the total market capitalization excluding BTC has risen by 15.13%. Matrixport believes that the continued decline in BTC's market share is a signal that the altcoin season is truly coming. LD Capital founder JackYi said that the bull market has a cycle of price increases, first BTC and ETH peak, then mainstream mid-cap coins rise, and finally various powerful altcoins rise.
In addition, according to Executive Order 14178, the White House will release its first cryptocurrency policy report on July 22. David Sacks, the White House's head of cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence, said that the (GENIUS Act) signed by Trump established a legal framework for stablecoins, and will promote the development of the US crypto industry by formulating clear regulatory rules (changing the past four years of relying on litigation for regulation), using blockchain to innovate traditional payment systems, and consolidating the dominance of the US dollar (creating trillions of dollars in demand for US Treasury bonds). The White House also stated that the bill is historic legislation that will pave the way for the United States to lead in digital currency. Trump said that it created a clear and concise regulatory framework, releasing the huge potential of dollar-backed stablecoins, which may be the greatest reform in the fintech field since the birth of the Internet, and also believes that this is a major recognition of cryptocurrency and is beneficial to the US dollar and the United States, and can ensure the dominance of the United States in the field of encryption technology. He once again called on the Fed to cut interest rates to 1%, and US Secretary of Commerce Lutnik also believes that the interest rates maintained by Powell are too high. Fed Goolsby said that the data shows that tariffs have pushed up commodity inflation, which he is slightly worried about. He is heartbroken to see the debate about the Fed's independence, and expects interest rates to fall sharply in the coming year.
In terms of price, BTC is up 0.3% to $119,000, and ETH is up 2.3% to $3,850. In the past six months, the large-scale inflow of BTC spot ETFs has been basically synchronized with the rise in price. US-listed companies have significantly accelerated their holdings of BTC, with holdings increasing by 40%. ETH spot ETFs have seen net inflows for 9 consecutive weeks, with total holdings of $13.4 billion, completely reversing the previous downturn.
Regarding market trends, some believe that if this round of "altcoin season" begins, it may be driven more by institutional capital, and sectors that can accommodate the spillover of large institutional capital may be more attractive. The market will develop in a more mature and rational direction. The US signing the stablecoin bill aims to cultivate stablecoins into a trillion-dollar market to absorb US debt. Trump's decision to pass the bill before the Fed cuts interest rates (last Friday) may be more beneficial, facilitating the rapid inflow of funds after monetary easing. Driven by potential liquidity, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices have repeatedly reached new highs, and the cryptocurrency market may also rise, ushering in a new round of bull market, but risks should also be noted.
In addition, the Fed's interest rate meeting in June maintained its expectation of two interest rate cuts before the end of the year, which supports the current market. The upcoming Fed interest rate meeting on July 30, the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on August 21, and the Fed interest rate meeting on September 17 are three important nodes. If the Fed maintains a similar dovish trend, it may help the market continue to recover, but risks still need to be guarded against.
