WHAT IS YOUR EXIT STRATEGY ?
Seriously as it is important to get in early the right time to exit will save you from being the bag holder.
1. Bitcoin Cycle Tops Align with High M2 Growth
The green histogram spikes (YoY Global M2 Growth) precede or coincide with Bitcoin market cycle tops.
These surges represent liquidity injections into the global economy (e.g., COVID stimulus in 2020โ2021).
High liquidity correlates with risk-on sentiment, boosting Bitcoinโs price.
๐ต Cycle Tops:
Occur near the peaks in global M2 growth.
2. Cycle Bottoms Occur During Liquidity Contractions
Bitcoin bottoms form during or shortly after sharp contractions in M2 growth (red negative bars).
The 2022โ2023 cycle bottom coincides with historically negative M2 YoY growth, highlighting a liquidity crunch.
๐ด Bottoms:
Align with the most aggressive global monetary tightening periods.
3. Global M2 Supply Forms a Steady Support
The orange line (total M2 supply) continues to rise structurally, despite short-term slowdowns.
This underpins a long-term bullish macro structure, suggesting that liquidity continues to grow globally even during temporary contractions.
๐ข Bitcoin tends to recover as long as M2 resumes upward trend.
4. 2024โ2025 Setup: Bullish Liquidity Expansion
The recent parabolic uptrend in M2 supply (post-2023) is likely fueling Bitcoinโs next macro leg up.
If history repeats, this growth phase may coincide with a new market cycle top in late 2025.
๐งญ Conclusion: Liquidity is King
This chart clearly demonstrates:
Bitcoin is highly sensitive to global liquidity flows.
Cycle tops occur in periods of maximum liquidity growth.
Cycle bottoms occur in periods of liquidity contraction.
With M2 supply expanding again, the current cycle likely remains in its bullish phase.
Strategic Implications
Accumulation zones: When M2 YoY growth is negative or neutral (especially during red histogram bars).
Distribution zones: When M2 YoY growth becomes excessive (spikes in green).
Risk management: Track M2 growth as a leading macro indicator for Bitcoin cycle shifts.
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