Talk about my Bitcoin selling plan

Some people feel that this market cycle has introduced a lot of new elements, such as ETFs, large institutions entering the market, geopolitical influences, etc., and they begin to doubt whether the old cyclical theories are outdated, thinking that history no longer repeats itself. Some even believe that prices will just keep rising, and the bull market will never end.

If you think this way, it's not wrong; it’s simple—if you’re optimistic in the long term, just keep buying and holding, investing steadily until the end of time.

However, I personally lean towards the idea that the cyclical theory is still valid, primarily because the halving mechanism is still in place, and Bitcoin's operational logic hasn’t changed. So my actions are still focused on the cycle.

I mainly focus on spot trading, so I will share my judgment from the perspective of spot trading. According to past cycles, this round's peak is likely to occur in the fourth quarter of this year. It's hard to say which month, but we need to be particularly cautious before the end of the year.

Currently, the average price is around 118,000, which isn't too low. At this stage, blindly increasing positions isn’t very meaningful. If there’s a chance to drop back below 100,000, I will consider adding a little more as a long-term allocation.

If you entered the market early last year, for example, started buying at the beginning of 2023, then you can be relatively relaxed now. Even if you don’t sell, it’s fine because your cost is low. However, if your cost is above 75,000, I personally suggest considering selling in batches; locking in profits is what truly matters.

The next bear market low is expected to fall between 55,000 and 65,000, based on past patterns and rainbow chart predictions. Of course, some institutions predict that this round could rise to 200,000 or 250,000; I do not rule out this possibility. If you believe it, make your plans based on that expectation.

Ultimately, the long-term story of Bitcoin is indeed grand, but for ordinary people, the investment still has to return to the question of 'can it improve real life.' Not everyone can hold firmly for several years; most people have life pressures.

Therefore, my own plan is that if it rises to around 150,000, I will sell half; those who prefer safety can choose to sell everything. After selling, don’t think about chasing high prices; just patiently wait for the next opportunity. I think considering gradually re-investing in spot trading in the third quarter of next year is a more prudent pace.