Dear friends in the crypto community, this market trend is indeed extraordinary! Multiple altcoin season indicators have broken the 50 mark, reaching a peak not seen since last December—institutional giants are pouring in with large amounts of capital, and the open interest of ETH perpetual contracts has surged from $18 billion to $28 billion in just one week, with the speed of capital inflow akin to a hungry tiger pouncing. Bitcoin's market share has significantly dropped from 64% to 60%, while ETH has risen against the trend, with its market share climbing from 9.7% to 11.6%. The signals are so clear; the initiation of the altcoin season seems inevitable!
The altcoin season has already turned on the green light; three key pieces of evidence cannot be ignored:
Capital indicators are all showing positive trends: in addition to the surge in ETH contract positions, the total market capitalization of altcoins (TOTAL2) has rebounded to $1.5 trillion, setting a new high since January this year, technically breaking through a descending wedge—this seems to pave a highway for the upward trend.
Stablecoin reserves are sufficient: the reserves of stablecoins on exchanges have reached a historical peak of $31 billion, with only Binance and HTX absorbing over $1.7 billion this week. This represents real capital waiting to enter, and the intensity of this influx is unimaginable.
Market sentiment has been completely ignited: the altcoin season index has soared from the June low of 15, approaching the critical line of 75 on July 8. Although it is currently consolidating around 50, the rhythm of capital rotation is clear—ETH surged 17% last week, increasing the ETH/BTC exchange rate by 8%, and a large amount of capital has already sensed the opportunity!
It is important to note that a true 'comprehensive altcoin season' requires more than 75% of mainstream coins to outperform Bitcoin within 90 days, and the current compliance rate is about 50%—this means the market has only just begun, with plenty of room for growth!
Institutions have replaced retail investors as the main players in the market, with favorable policies driving a wave of allocations. The driving force of this cycle has fundamentally changed! In the past, retail FOMO emotions pushed up prices; now, financial and asset management giants are personally buying in. The core driving force comes from the U.S. (GENIUS Act)—once the stablecoin regulatory framework is clarified, institutions will immediately allocate ETH, SOL, XRP, ADA, and other public chain tokens as 'crypto reserve assets.'
Look at how strong these operations are: ETH spot ETF has seen net inflows surpassing Bitcoin ETF for two consecutive days, and BlackRock has also expressed confidence in the staking ETH ETF. If the SEC approves the ETH staking ETF in the coming months, the trend of funds shifting from Bitcoin to Ethereum may explode—institutions are not only focusing on spot but have also pre-arranged their revenue models.
Why can ETH become the leader of the altcoin season? There are three heavy expectations supporting it:
Expectations for the staking ETF: Large positions in bullish ETH options expiring in September and December have been established, with big funds betting on favorable developments in the fourth quarter—once approved, ETH will upgrade from 'pure token' to 'yield-bearing asset,' significantly enhancing its allocation value for institutions!
The technical aspect has opened a primary upward wave: analyst Gert van Lagen, based on Elliott Wave Theory, judges that ETH is entering the final wave of a multi-year bull market; if the pattern is complete, the target price may reach $10,000—considering the current ETH price is only $3,800, the upward space is huge!
Ecological siphon effect: The logic behind this round of institutional buying is very clear: betting on the 'underlying public chain of custodial stablecoins.' As the most complete and compliant Layer 1 public chain, ETH naturally receives the maximum dividends. Those who think ETH is outdated should update their views!
$5 trillion of market frenzy is about to arrive; how to seize the opportunity of sector rotation? The explosive potential of the altcoin market may exceed everyone's imagination: the TOTAL3 market capitalization (excluding BTC and ETH) is currently only $1 trillion, with analysts targeting $5 trillion—this means there is 400% growth potential to be explored! But making money requires a sense of rhythm:
Phase One (Current): Funds are focused on large-cap blue-chip coins like ETH and SOL, with institutional backing and high liquidity being key;
Phase Two: When ETH returns outperform BTC, funds will flow into ecosystem leaders like ADA and XRP;
Phase Three: Small-cap coins will fluctuate greatly, but with extreme volatility—when Bitcoin's market share drops to 48%-50%, it is a warning signal, and one should consider exiting at that time.
Past lessons are worth remembering: at the end of the 2024 altcoin season crash, most coins fell by 50%-90%. So remember: allocate large positions to leading coins, small positions to potential coins, and gradually reduce positions when the index exceeds 70!
Action advice: Do not miss opportunities, but also do not blindly follow the trend.
Short-term: Accumulate ETH and SOL on dips, backed by institutional buying, providing a high safety margin;
Medium-term: Closely monitor the approval status of the ETH staking ETF (critical in the next 1-2 months); once approved, increase your holdings;
Long-term: When BTC.D falls below 55%, timely diversify into second-tier coins like ADA and AVAX to fully enjoy the benefits of sector rotation.
Special reminder: When the altcoin season index breaks 70, stablecoin inflow into exchanges significantly decreases, or BTC.D rebounds from a bottom—when these three signals appear simultaneously, it's time to exit!
Conclusion: Only those who dare to act can seize opportunities; hesitation will only lead to missed chances. This round of altcoin season driven by institutional funds, led by ETH, and supported by policies, may be the biggest wealth opportunity of 2025—$1.5 trillion in hot money is already in place, and a $5 trillion market space is opening.
Now, you only need to do two things:
Put aside your doubts: the data does not lie, an ETH market share of 11.6% is just the beginning;
Study carefully: quickly make a list and see which coins among ETH, SOL, ADA, etc., have the most solid fundamentals and which have potential opportunities?
#Altcoin Breakthrough
What you lack is not luck, but professional analysis and guidance! I am Su Xiaowan, here to help you see through the dynamics of the crypto world and seize investment opportunities! Follow me, and let's closely watch the cryptocurrency opportunities amidst the trade war storm! #币圈 #ETH
