I. Understanding the trend

Everyone is anxious, but what is the use of anxiety? We often see people talking about bull and bear markets; are the definitions of bull and bear really that clear-cut? In other words, are the definitions of bull and bear really that useful? The bull market we often talk about is a high probability profit-making market, but if you are always waiting for clear signals of a bull market, you will hardly make any money! On the contrary, the probability of losing money in a bull market is much higher than in a bear market, because desire is endless while the market has limits!

From the timeline perspective, 98% of the time in the cryptocurrency market should be classified as a bear market, because a bull market is an extreme market, and extremes are also the time when danger accumulates quickly. Therefore, it is better not to expect a bull market and to live in the present.

The market exists because of supply and demand; as long as there is supply and demand, there will be fluctuations, and wherever there are fluctuations, there will definitely be opportunities to make money. The cryptocurrency market differs from other investment markets, which is clear once you break it down: excessively high leverage leads to excessively high desires, resulting in excessively high capital pressure. Furthermore, due to the lack of regulation in the cryptocurrency market and the scarcity of capital targets, the degree of capital manipulation is far greater than in other markets. This is something you can see if you pay close attention; don’t say that capital doesn’t play a big role in other markets. Last winter, the price of cabbage was 30 cents at the farm gate and 3 yuan at the market; it is merely the result of capital accumulation.

However, the supply and demand relationship in the cryptocurrency market is different from other markets due to the uniqueness of the trading targets. Virtual tokens cannot be eaten, drunk, or enter the production process; their value points differ from other commodities, yet they are still commodities. Where is their commodity value point? First, financial attributes, i.e., hedging and profit-taking; second, universal value, i.e., potential future value storage and circulation means. The former is the formation point of the so-called bull and bear markets, driven by speculative behavior leading to accumulation and selling; the latter is the decentralized consensus pursued by many enthusiasts.

Once the supply and demand relationship is clear, is it still meaningful to consider bull and bear? Any short-term judgment will lead to short-term behavior, which in turn affects short-term market trends. When we judge the market, in addition to the basic news-driven rise and fall, we also need to focus on the trading behaviors of major funds, which is the real reason for our entanglement.

However, major funds are very cunning; they will not easily change their minds but will always hide their techniques. Selling high and buying low is a passive item for us, but an active item for them; the reasons for this are for you to ponder.

Therefore, we judge that the market cannot be too obsessed with news, because news can be toxic in a bear market. Compared to news, we prefer to analyze the movements of big players from the perspective of volume ratio. What is volume ratio? It is the comprehensive ratio between trading volume and time, space, currency, funds, and price parameters, which involves our own analytical system and cannot be fully explained in a short time. But here, Qingquan can tell everyone that the volume ratio indicator has already shown a shift, indicating that big players have already entered the mid-game. What does this represent? It may mean that a turning point in the phase of the market has arrived. Qingquan has already published this in a micro-article.

Here, Xiaowan summarizes some insights from predecessors and expands upon them. If you agree, please note them down; if you disagree, just smile and move on.

Markets are born in despair and disappear in frenzy. Similarly, the market progresses in hesitation and grows in confusion.

The so-called breaking point is merely a relay point for trading volume. In practical operations, we never pursue perfection of indicators, because the ultimate in mathematics is fuzzy control. Therefore, usually when Qingquan intervenes, it will float up by 3 percentage points, and when Qingquan exits, it will float down by 3 percentage points, never pursuing maximization of apparent profits but rather maximizing the efficiency of capital flow. Let the three-point route coexist with the public, never leading the world in advance; I have said this before.

Perhaps some people think they are stuck, but the root of being stuck lies in greed. Human desire needs to be controlled, and one must always maintain some margin; this is also the reason for constantly emphasizing inventory. Up to now, everyone can see that I still have 40% redundancy in my capital; in the previous batch, this redundancy was 60%. What is this inventory for? It is for error tolerance! One must always consider their own mistakes, to be able to attack when possible and defend when necessary, in order to remain undefeated. What does this mean? In the cryptocurrency market, it’s not about how much you earn, but how long you can survive!

II. Teaching

Being stuck is shameful because the essence of being stuck is desire-driven behavior. For the many grassroots brothers, I reluctantly share the method of unblocking systematically.

1. Dead resistance. Suitable for those whose depth of being stuck exceeds 80%. At this point, your mindset has already changed; you are too stubborn, and you only have the path of dead resistance to walk. Because at this time, your judgment is deaf and irrational, making you prone to extreme reactions. Similarly, when you are really stuck with over 80%, perhaps your reversal opportunity is already on the way. Of course, this does not apply to those worthless junk coins; Qingquan only recognizes mainstream coins, or rather, valuable mainstream coins, and the same goes for the following. So, brothers, please do not ask me about those junk coins anymore, because I really do not know what to say. To be honest, I fear you cannot handle it, and if I say otherwise, it would be insincere. The outcome for those who play with those coins is already determined.

2. Gradual exit. Suitable for those who are stuck with a depth of more than 50% but not exceeding 80%. At this time, you need to reassess the market situation, reasonably allocate your position, and determine the short and long term. My suggestion is to split 50/50, take out 50% of the coin amount for short-term trading. The significance of short-term trading at this time has three points: first, regain autonomy; second, regain market sense; third, activate the local market. The first two points are self-perceived, and the last one is externally perceived. In short, one must help oneself before helping others.

3. Stop loss. Suitable for those whose depth of being stuck has not reached 50%. Is a loss of less than 50% called being stuck? At this point, you should stop overthinking; remain calm, and reflect on your reasons for entering the coin at that time, establish cause and effect, and broaden your horizons. Without summarization, there can be no progress.

III. Discussing form

The way should not be sold cheaply, and the law should not be passed lightly. But Xiaowan is so candid, why? Xiaowan always believes that blockchain is constantly evolving, and from a technical perspective, its application scenarios will inevitably emerge in the future. Therefore, all those conspiracy theories and scam theories are merely blind men touching an elephant; it is still too early to say anything.

From a national definition standpoint, it is merely due to the excessive financialization of blockchain that control has been imposed. This involves reasons related to national conflicts, which have been previously mentioned, so I will not elaborate further. However, from the domestic perspective, there is currently no definition labeling individual possession of virtual tokens as illegal, and in judicial practice, virtual tokens are still regarded as virtual property. Therefore, it is worth giving virtual tokens a definition, which is that they are the equipment we acquire in online games, nothing more. This definition is temporary, but it still holds value.

From an international perspective, American traces are becoming increasingly obvious. They want to turn blockchain into a second fiat currency pool, due to both national will and capital-driven reasons. Therefore, the turning point in the cryptocurrency market is approaching.

Covering tens of thousands of spot and contract users, currently focusing on the cryptocurrency secondary market, good at medium and short-term trend trading! Cognition creates wealth, and spirit creates faith.

I am Su Xiaowan, thank you all for continuously following my articles. Everyone is welcome to follow, like, comment, and share. Your growth is the motivation for us to continue sharing and is the essence of my value!

When trading contracts, always include stop-loss and take-profit; also manage your position sizes.